also slowed in 2025 (+3%YoY to 1,288kt vs. >>10%/yr, 2021-24), it was sufficient to offset supply by 2H25, buoying product prices by 4Q25, into 2026. 3. Stocking strategies: While there are no reported market inventories for lithium - like other base metals, steel, iron ore, coals, etc.) – we do track the monthly difference between supply and demand as a general proxy. Our analysis suggests that government-prompted strategic stockpiling is in play, acting as a quasi-demand driver. Lithium’s supply-demand outlook For 2026, we forecast a 2%YoY lift in global mine supply, to 1,346kt (420kt, brines; 926kt, hard-rock), well below the 15-45%/year growth rates of global lithium miners’ attempts to meet outsized demand growth in EV and energy storage during 2020-23. Note, the centre of global mine supply has shifted marginally in recent years – as the industry adjusted to 2023’s price collapse – from Australia-Chile- China to Zimbabwe-Argentina. Global lithium demand for 2026 is set to lift 4%YoY to 1,375kt. Of this total, EV demand is 1,083kt (79% of total Li demand), up 6%YoY; total rechargeable battery demand growth (incl. EVs) is forecast to lift 7%YoY to 1,259kt. Energy storage, lithium’s new demand driver, is set to lift 20%YoY to 73kt. Other lithium end-uses include consumer goods’ batteries, glass, ceramics, greases, polymers, etc. About electric vehicles Again, EV batteries demand dominated lithium’s demand outlook. Here, we focus on the latest EV sales data for guidance on risks to total lithium demand growth. Global EV sales for 1Q26 of 4.0m is flat year-on-year – including China’s 20%YoY fall to 1.9m (hit by new sales tax), EU’s +27%YoY to 1.2m, North America’s +27%YoY to 0.32m, RoW’s +76% to 0.6m. Of global EV sales, 65% BEVs vs. 35% PHEVs. For global 2026 global EV sales, we forecast 22.5 million EV passenger vehicle sales (+9%YoY), contributing 65% to all 2026 EV sales of 34.7 million (+6%YoY; incl. BEV, PHEV, FCEV; cars, buses, trucks, vans). In turn, total EV sales are set to represent 36% of 2026’s total global vehicle sales (95.7m, +0.2%YoY). Price outlook Our modelling of lithium’s short-term supply-demand condition flags a 30kt deficit for this year – making us lithium price bulls for 2026. Specifically, we expect the prices to at least hold above the US$20k/t (carbonate/hydroxide). But we are not long-term lithium price bulls. Our long-term lithium price forecast, active from 2030, is just $16k/t (2025$; for carbonate/hydroxide). Why do we expect prices to eventually fall from spot levels? Because spot prices are far above the industry’s current marginal cost of production of US$10k/t. We should therefore expect a lift in the global lithium supply rate – as miners worldwide exploit the industry’s current, substantial economic rent. Eventually, this supply-side response will drag on lithium’s medium- term prices, assuming its corresponding demand growth rate remains broadly intact. Of course, this supply-side response to high lithium prices is already happening – in Zimbabwe. China is struggling to grow low- cost lithium supply at home, and in its two key sources of imports – Chile and Australia. China’s massive-scale investment in the lithium industry of Zimbabwe since 2020 – the world’s newest lithium mining province – reflects its determination to bring down the cost of this critical battery input. n
3 x price rally drivers 1. Mine supply cuts: We regard mine output curbs of 2023-24 as critical in creating the conditions for lithium’s 4Q25 price rally: >200ktpa of supply was cut, 12-15% of the global total. These occurred mostly in Australia, Chile, China – partly displaced by lower cost supply in Zimbabwe. This structural shift saw both the industry’s capex cycle and total supply growth stall in 2025 (i.e. flat year-on-year, at 1,301kt). 2. Demand recovery/stability: While global lithium demand
JUNE 2026 | www.modernminingmagazine.co.za MODERN MINING 9
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