REVENUE & EXPENDITURE ASSUMPTIONS
Key Indicators One of the most important factors that impact businesses and residents is the job market. Chapman University is forecasting Orange County employment will grow by only 0.5 percent in 2023. Orange County’s economy will recover from the pandemic -induced recession in 2021 and 2022, but will face headwinds in 2023 and 2024. As of December 2022, the City had an unemployment rate of 2.6 percent, faring better than California and the nation as a whole. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report unemployment rate in the Orange County metropolitan area, which includes Anaheim, Santa Ana, and Irvine, was 2.5 percent, 4.1 percent in California, and 3.5 percent for the nation.
Vehicle sales and leasing are significant components of the City’s overall sales tax revenue. Orange County’s new vehicle sales are recovering from the pandemic, but still facing challenges from the microchip shortage and the supply chain issues. According to the Orange County Automobile Dealers Association (OCADA), rising vehicle and fuel prices, slower economic growth, and higher interest rates have softened demand for new vehicles. New vehicle registrations are forecasted to reach 160,000 units in 2023, a 5 percent increase from 2022.
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FY 2023-25 Adopted Budget
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