Improved veld conditions leading to flock rebuilding flocks in response to improved veld conditions. This is expected to restrict the number of animals available for slaughter over the near term, which could provide price support. Rising pressure on consumers’ disposable income is, in turn, likely to curb price growth over the coming Rainfall conditions improved in 2021 and 2022 and producers are now rebuilding 18-24 months. Beef prices are a key determinant of lamb prices with lamb prices closely linked to beef with a
correlation of 80%. This suggests that high beef prices could provide room for lamb prices to also increase substantially towards the end of 2022. Over the next two-to-three years, as the availability of marketable animals improves, price growth for carcasses and feeder lambs could moderate. It is, however, expected that substantial decreases in carcass prices would be limited due to structural issues affecting the supply growth. These include high risk due to issues such as animal theft and climatic issues where certain areas are slowly recovering from drought.
Rainfall % Deviations from Long-term Average in Key Lamb/Mutton Producing Areas
Table 3.2
Tankwa Matjiesfontein
Montagu Bredasdorp
Mosselbay Calitzdorp
Uniondale Oudtshoorn
George Plettenberg Bay
Willowmore Klaarstroom
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-3.3 7.3
-3.3 7.3
-3.3 7.3
-3.3 7.3
-3.3 7.3
-3.3 7.3
15.1 43.1 43.9 -31.2 10.4 -30.1
15.1 43.1 43.9 -31.2 10.4 -30.1
15.1 43.1 43.9 -31.2 10.4 -30.1
15.1 43.1 43.9 -31.2 10.4 -30.1
15.1 43.1 43.9 -31.2 10.4 -30.1
15.1 43.1 43.9 -31.2 10.4 -30.1
9.1 1.0
9.1 1.0
9.1 1.0
9.1 1.0
9.1 1.0
9.1 1.0
40.8 42.4
40.8 42.4
40.8 42.4
40.8 42.4
40.8 42.4
40.8 42.4
Source: Weather SA, 2021
21
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