HOUSINGNEWS REPORT
8 ECONOMISTS PREDICT 2018 HOUSING MARKET TRENDS
continue to fuel price gains for new homes in 2018.
existing inventory continues to push buyers towards newly built homes. Prices will likely rise between 3 percent and 4 percent, pushing the median sales price of new homes to between $320,000 and $330,000.
KLEINHENZ : New home prices will increase somewhat faster than existing home prices with sales increasing in the mid-single digit percentage range. GARDNER : New home sales should rise to 655,000 in 2018, and I expect prices to increase by 4.1 percent. I hoped that builders would already be breaking ground on a lot of homes but, unfortunately, this has yet to be the case. While housing starts and sales will rise in 2018, they will still remain well below the long-term average due to escalating land, labor, materials, and regulatory costs. I do hold out hope that home builders will be able to help meet the high demand we’re expecting from first-time buyers, but in many markets it’s very difficult for them to do so due to rising construction costs. ZANDI : Similar to existing sales, new home sales in 2018 should hold their own close to 700,000 units, but house price growth will slow due to the tax law changes and a shift in new construction to lower-priced starter homes. YUN : Whatever the builders construct, they can sell. So new home sales can easily rise by 10 percent or more. The prices will moderate as homebuilders will be cautious of building very large homes due to high-end market concerns surrounding tax reform.
MCLAUGHLIN : We expect new home sales to fall between 750,000 and 800,000 in 2018, as historically low
“Though homebuilders remain challenged by a tight labor force, rising material costs, and land constraints, new inventory should grow in 2018 as housing starts and permits recently reached a 10-year high. With the size of new homes declining for the first time in a decade, we could see price growth soften.” — MUOIO “While housing starts and sales will rise in 2018, they will still remain well below the long-term average due to escalating land, labor, materials, and regulatory costs. I do hold out hope that home builders will be able to help meet the high demand we’re expecting from first-time buyers, but in many markets it’s very difficult for them to do so due to rising construction costs.” — GARDNER
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JANUARY 2018 | ATTOM DATA SOLUTIONS
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