HOUSINGNEWS REPORT
8 ECONOMISTS PREDICT 2018 HOUSING MARKET TRENDS
3. WHAT IS YOUR OUTLOOK FOR NEW HOME SALES AND PRICES IN 2018?
VIVAS : For 2018, we expect a 7 percent increase in new home sales.
sales do not have the same inventory constraint as existing-home sales, and should continue to rise as strong demand eats up new supply. Though homebuilders remain challenged by a tight labor force, rising material costs, and land constraints, new inventory should grow in 2018 as housing starts and permits recently reached a 10-year high. With the size of new homes declining for the first time in a decade, we could see price growth soften, though elevated construction costs and robust demand should
in 2018, we’ll see new sales climb over 750,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Though there is a shortage of inventory, which typically means continued price growth, the affordability crisis will create a “ceiling” as builders begin to price competitively to stay close to the mass of demand. Next year will be a near-carbon copy of the flat trend of sales prices we saw this year.
VILLACORTA : As we’ve seen since 2010, new home sales will generally continue upward in 2018 as the new home market continues to make up for lost time post-housing crash. For example, the 10-year high of the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 units in October is a positive metric in terms of overall growth, but there’s still room to grow: 2007 (the last time we saw sales that high) was down 48 percent from the peak value in 2005. It’s likely that
MUOIO : New home sales and prices should both rise in 2018. New home
ECONOMIST
2018 NEW HOME SALES
2018 NEW HOME PRICES
(SOFTENING)
(SLOWING)
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JANUARY 2018 | ATTOM DATA SOLUTIONS
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