HOUSINGNEWS REPORT
8 ECONOMISTS PREDICT 2018 HOUSING MARKET TRENDS
“Many current homeowners are finally emerging from negative equity positions to face a housing market they can’t afford if they sell. So unless current homeowners seek to downsize or relocate, there will be challenges to unlocking existing inventory.” — VILLACORTA “The economy has been expanding for eight and a half years, the third longest of the post-World War II era. The expansion has been marked by steady growth in fundamentals but the housing market has not been normal: Homeownership rate is still low by historic standards; New home construction has lagged household growth; Millennials are still shaking off the effects of the great recession but there continue to be delays in life cycle decisions: forming households, becoming renters, becoming homeowners.” — KLEINHENZ
confronting weaker affordability prospects, prices will have less room to grow. MCLAUGHLIN : We expect existing home sales to crack the 6 million mark in 2018, as demand for homes — especially amongst first time homebuyers — continues its slow and steady increase. Given that inventory remains tight, we also expect prices of existing homes to increase between the 3 percent to 5 percent range per month on a year-over-year basis, pushing the seasonally adjusted sales price to between $275,000 and $280,000 by the end of the year. KLEINHENZ : First of all, the economy has been expanding for eight and a half years, the third longest of the
post-World War II era. The expansion has been marked by steady growth in fundamentals but the housing market has not been normal: Homeownership rate is still low by historic standards; New home construction has lagged household growth; Millennials are still shaking off the effects of the great recession but there continue to be delays in life cycle decisions: forming households, becoming renters, becoming homeowners. With these observations in mind, the median price of an existing home should increase by 5 percent to 7 percent, and sales will increase by 3 percent to 5 percent.
home prices rising by 4.4 percent. Total sales will be higher; however, inventory limitations will continue to impact the market. As new construction activity picks up, I expect to see some modest improvement in the number of available homes for sale, but 2018 will remain a seller’s market across most of the U.S. ZANDI : Existing home sales should at least hold steady in 2018 near 5.8 million units, but house price growth will slow to the low single digits. Supporting sales will be the strong job market and easier mortgage underwriting standards. But higher mortgage rates and changes to the tax code will limit any gain in sales and weigh on house price growth.
GARDNER : U.S. existing home sales should rise to 5.616 million in 2018 with
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JANUARY 2018 | ATTOM DATA SOLUTIONS
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