development. Other commitments prioritised global sustainability and climate goals. The G7 Research Group selected 20 priority commitments that best repre- sent the total of 469 made at the Apulia Summit, encompassing the key focus areas outlined by Italy’s presidency. The selection includes three commit- ments on regional security and two each on energy, migration and the dig- ital economy. One each was chosen on trade, development, gender, health, environment, food and agriculture, cybersecurity, non-proliferation, mac- roeconomics, climate change, labour and employment, and infrastructure. The interim analysis assessed G7 members’ compliance from the end of the Apulia Summit on 15 June 2024, when the commitments were made, to 20 December 2024, midway to the G7 Kananaskis Summit on 15–17 June 2025. Tracking continues for the final report, to be published in early June, covering the full period between the two summits. By 20 December, average compliance with the Apulia commitments was 88%, down 3% from the G7’s interim compliance following the 2023 Hiro- shima Summit. This 88% exceeds the 85% interim scores from the 2022 Elmau and 2021 Cornwall summits but remains below the 93% interim com- pliance peak from the 2020 US-hosted virtual summit, narrowly focused on the Covid-19 pandemic. By subject, six Apulia commit- ments had full compliance (100%) by December: those on clean energy in developing countries, financial solutions for forest protection, the Partnership for Global Infrastruc- ture and Investment, financial and price stability, extraordinary reve- nue acceleration loans to Ukraine, and Israel and Palestine. Commitments on cybersecurity, decarbonising the power sector, gender, health, border management, non-proliferation and trade followed closely at 94%. Com- mitments on military assistance to Ukraine (88%), artificial intelligence (88%), labour (81%), closing digital divides (75%) and preventing migrant smuggling and trafficking (69%) fol- lowed. All commitments exceeded 50% compliance, but action on both climate adaptation and global food
security was only 56%. By member, the European Union ranked first with 98% compliance, fol- lowed by the United Kingdom and United States at 95%, and 2025 host Canada at 90%. These members were followed by Germany at 88%, 2024 host Italy at 85%, France at 80% and Japan at 78%. G7 PROSPECTS For the past four summits, final com- pliance scores rose 4% above the interim scores, finishing at or above 90%. Final compliance for Apulia will likely vary by subject, as global events and domestic political pressures affect members’ action. Continued compliance will also rely on leaders carrying the torch on commitments made by their predecessors: only three of the nine leaders at Apulia – Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, France’s Emmanuel Macron and the European Commission’s Ursula von der Leyen – will return to the summit table. The other two-thirds of the G7’s leader- ship departed their posts, making way for six new faces to bring their inter- ests to Kananaskis. Three of those changes occurred after the interim compliance period, increasing uncer- tainty about compliance as member priorities shift accordingly. Germany’s new coalition govern- ment aligns well with the Apulia host’s vision on migration, and border secu- rity has risen in importance across North America. As a result, action on migration will likely increase, fulfill- ing Apulia commitments and shaping the 2025 communiqué. Aside from migration, US president Donald Trump has already proven significantly more disruptive to tradi- tional G7 diplomacy than he was in his first term, as unprecedented cuts to overseas funding raise G7 compliance challenges. Kananaskis host Canada held a snap election less than 50 days before the summit. Agenda-shaping hosts heavily influence G7 summits, but the US will attempt to make its voice the loudest on contested issues. Trade, for example, was the second most prominent commitment area in Apulia (11%). Differing views on trade fairness will bring the issue to the fore in Kananaskis, although agreement may prove elusive.
// JACOB RUDOLPH Jacob Rudolph is co-chair of summit studies for the G7 Research Group for Canada’s 2025 Kananaskis Summit. He was a compliance analyst for Japan’s 2023 Hiroshima Summit and compliance director for Italy’s 2024 Apulia Summit, and was a member of the field team at the summit. He is also editor for the G20 Research Group. He studies economics, public policy and mathematics as a National Scholar at the University of Toronto, with particular interests in economic inequality and policy in the mac- roeconomic, energy, environment and health fields. Jacob is pursuing a career at the intersection of policy design and political strategy.
// ANGUS MacKELLAR Angus MacKellar is co-chair of
summit studies for the G7 Research Group for Canada’s 2025 Kananaskis Summit. Since 2022, he has been a compliance analyst and a compliance director, primarily researching devel- opment and education. He was also a member of the field team at Italy’s 2024 Apulia Summit. Angus stud- ies peace, conflict and justice, and international relations at the Univer- sity of Toronto and Sciences Po Paris. His research focuses on the history of British intelligence, corollary to his studies in intelligence, security and imperial history.
X-TWITTER @g7rg www.g7.utoronto.ca
117 globalgovernanceproject.org
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