// MILITARY SECURITY: MIDDLE EAST AND GULF
INTERVIEW
Charting a path to stability in the Middle East The Middle East faces a series of interconnected conflicts and crises that demand sustained international engagement. Only multilateral diplomacy, political
What are the prospects for a durable ceasefire in Gaza? The prospects are rather distant. The war in Gaza has fallen in international attention. There’s inadequate pressure on all the parties – particularly Israel – to build a credible pathway beyond the military dynamics. Without external pressure, Israel’s strategy is to create a buffer zone and perhaps advance the depopulation of the Gaza strip, as well as transfer the burden of security to its Arab neighbours. Hamas is fighting for its political survival, if not broader legitimacy, and is not incentivised to think about next-day, longer-term solutions. A coordinated international effort is needed to press all the parties to commit to a ceasefire, maintain a strict timeline and commit to a political, not military, solution. What is needed to resolve the conflict between the United States and the Houthis? The Houthis have a high risk tolerance. They’ve become more emboldened through the war in Gaza and the US and UK military efforts against them. A reinvigorated peace process needs to bring together all the parties involved in the war that began in 2015. That process must include incentives and also serious united regional and international pressure to restore governance in a united Yemen. Empowering the internationally recognised government also to be a party to that process is a simultaneous and necessary step. Unfortunately, this political process is far off, because none of the actors want to rehabilitate the Houthis as legitimate political players in Yemen. The result is another standoff. Without a political runway, military efforts alone cannot achieve the needed outcomes that can support Yemenis. Is an Iranian-US-Israeli agreement to end that conflict possible? There’s an urgent need for a broad regional and international agreement that addresses Iran’s advancing nuclear programme, as well as the broader regional security dynamics that have exploded over the past 18 months – especially as the Iran nuclear agreement will expire in October 2025. A diplomatic process is needed that can reimpose restraints on Iran in exchange for durable
incentives and pressure for accountable governance
can prevent further escalation and shape pathways to peace
Sanam Vakil, director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
30 // G7 CANADA: THE KANANASKIS SUMMIT 2025
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