Nuclear energy is expanding to record-breaking levels. What are the implications of this growth for the broader renewable energy landscape? Nuclear expansion is not something many predicted a decade ago, but it now has significant traction and will probably play an increasing role in the energy mix going forward. The advantages of nuclear energy in a clean energy grid are obvious. Baseload, highly reliable supply with very low carbon emissions are very attractive properties. Coupled with that is longevity, with plants routinely having lifetimes of 50 years plus. Decisions made now to build nuclear plant will result in power generation systems that are going to be with us as we approach the year 2100. The drive to triple nuclear by 2050, although probably overly optimistic in my view, is testament to the advantages nuclear can bring to a renewables dominated power grid. New Small Modular Reactor (SMR) plants are an interesting deviation from the nuclear norm. The ability to
Over the next few years, a bunch of new capacity will come online, and the supply of LNG will potentially outstrip demand; we should see meaningful downward pressure on pricing there. Flow that back into low carbon energy sources and their pace of roll out, and we get into a very complex position where climate concerns and excellent pricing drives downward pressure on renewables costs, while capacity growth in LNG should make it very competitive and economically difficult to move away from. We could then get into an energy price war, which would be a complete reversal of the situation of the last three to four years. Then, bring into the mix the critical mineral position and concerns over single countries dominating critical supply chains. As trade tends towards less globalization and more protectionist behaviours, cost alone might not be the dominating factor, and energy security concerns might rise to the top. I guess all that goes to say “it’s complicated…”
bulk manufacture stand designs could mean much faster adoption, much wider distribution and less costs. If SMRs successfully hit the streets, many of the drawbacks of traditional nuclear energy production will be removed. How does this impact renewables? That depends, in my mind, on cost. If they can be made cost effectively then all bets are off, and we would get into a proper race between the options, but it is unlikely that nuclear will get there any time soon (if ever). So, gazing into the hazy landscape of the future I think nuclear has a core position as a sustainable base load supply, but will not displace wind or solar as the future main power supplier. But then we all know how dangerous it is to try to predict the future… Solar PV and wind are leading the charge in driving renewables uptake. How do you foresee their roles evolving in the next decade? Solar is likely to dominate the future of renewables; I don’t see
Solar is likely to dominate the future of renewables; I don’t see any technology on the near horizon that could compete with the cost and simplicity of PV technology. “
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THE FUTURE OF ENERGY
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