total energy consumption and targets on energy efficiency. 167 Trial cap-and-trade systems have begun in five Chinese cities and two provinces. 168 Other countries and regions have adopted or are designing comprehensive carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems. 169 The United States has introduced tougher standards for power plants and taken steps to end financial support for new coal-fired plants overseas. 170 Collectively, however, we remain some distance from where we need to be. Whilst it is impressive that many countries, cities, provinces, firms, communities and individuals are acting, overall progress is far too slow. International undertakings and agreements, together with national and local action, support each other. Debates about climate change need to be recalibrated so that their focus is opportunity, and to ensure progress does not rely disproportionately on a unanimously agreed outcome at the UNFCCC. Internationally, the best case scenario is a multilateral agreement by 2015 that will come into effect by 2020. This might be too late. Fortunately, much can happen in the interim if communities, businesses, governments and the media work together to shift individual and market behaviour towards a safer trajectory. New actors should be engaged, and other pollutants tackled. 171 There are understandable tensions between developed and developing countries about the burden of mitigation, particularly at the cost of economic development in poorer countries. Similarly, how poor countries withstand the devastating effects of climate change, arguably caused by richer countries, is also a major challenge. The architecture of a global agreement is complex, much more so than the Montreal Protocol, which addressed the depletion of the ozone layer. Concerted action at the city, company and country level will be vital in creating the necessary dynamics for effective multilateral action.
agreement. Initiatives can include domestic carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems, temporary border carbon adjustments (removed upon the assumption of a global price), a moratorium on new coal stations that do not use the most effective available technologies for reducing emissions (except in rare economic circumstances), halting deforestation and other land conversion, reforestation, promotion of renewable energy, public transport improvements, tighter rules on energy efficiency, and more investment into R&D. The focus need not solely be on CO 2 emissions: tackling other pollutants is an important, and often overlooked, part of the overall effort. 179 • International collaboration and exchange: Credible incentives for, and investment in, cleaner energy infrastructure for poor and developing countries is urgently required. The Green Climate Fund, established in 2010 and aimed at helping developing countries transition to low emission and climate resilient economic development, promises much on this, but fundraising has been slow and the operational system needs to be scaled up. Technology sharing must also be prioritised, particularly on waste and clean energy. The creation of a “Manhattan project” on new energy and support of a step-up in modelling would add greatly to understanding the uncertain and uneven dynamics and consequences of climate change, as would clearer communication on the science and possible consequences of climate change. • Smaller groupings: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) needs reform. A few countries are holding up vital progress for all. Mechanisms need to be found to allow multi-track solutions and coalitions of like-minded countries to begin to make progress on common agreements. Technical expertise and smaller group meetings to advance negotiations must be prioritised. The unbundling of different dimensions of the agreement, to reduce complexity and allow progress on certain tracks, may also be helpful.
energy sectors would provide a significant step forward. This should be complemented by greater commitment to initiatives like the Natural Resource Charter and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which foster sustainable and transparent extraction of minerals and other natural resources. 173 development (R&D) and long-term systems approaches uniting food, energy, water and land use and biodiversity preservation need to increase considerably. Incentivising new technologies that offer alternatives to existing resource-intensive “locked-in” technologies, and measuring available “stockpiles” of renewable energy would make a significant contribution. 174 Large prizes to drive innovative solutions on pre-defined climate and sustainability goals could be considered, perhaps as a substitute (or top-up) for intellectual property rights. 175 • Transfer and consumption: Excessive consumption in the developed world must be reduced, whilst food waste in developing countries should be addressed in order to close the yield gap. Global food, water and enhance resource security. Agriculture holds vast potential for rural development, yet landscapes need to be managed to support multiple functions and the fair exploitation of natural resources. 176 Yields could potentially be benchmarked and regulated alongside carbon sequestration, nutrient density, biodiversity conservation, and resilience to climate fluctuations. • Technology: Government and business investment into integrated research and energy systems need to work together to generate sustainable pathways that • New actors, multiple targets: A global carbon price, reflecting the extent of adjustment required to achieve an agreed amount of total or per capita CO 2 that can be emitted over time, will be vital to drive the scale of investment needed in low-carbon infrastructure. 177 Realistically, this is sometime off and will require greater support and more concerted action from China and the United States. (Although the United States has reduced its emissions, a sharper reduction in United States per capita emissions and a more rapid slowing of the growth in China’s per capita emissions is required.) 178 Action by groups of cities, countries and companies, aided by international coordination, could spur renewed momentum toward a global On carbon:
What could be done?
On resource futures:
• Transparency: There should be greater transparency, including in commodity
trading, declaration of national reserves, and land purchases in less developed countries. Phasing out fossil fuel and agricultural subsidies is well overdue. 172 If taken up, Chatham House’s proposal for a new Resource 30 (or R30) group comprising the leading importers and exporters of natural resources to enhance transparency, security and accessibility across the food, water, and
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