An early warning for the G20: Turning data into decisive action on disaster resilience
South Africa’s G20 presidency has placed disaster risk reduction at the forefront, urging the world’s largest economies to move beyond declarations and deliver measurable progress
Jessica Rapson, research associate, G20 Research Group
T he world is facing an unprecedented surge in climate-induced disasters, and the numbers tell a sobering story. Between 2015 and 2023, more than 124 million people were affected by disasters annually across the globe. Even more alarming, the rate of disaster-affected populations has jumped dramatically – from 1,158 per 100,000 people during 2005–2014 to 2,028 during 2014–2023, representing a staggering 75% increase, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. This escalating crisis affects G20 members significantly, including South Africa, where communities face an increasingly diverse array of climate-related disasters. Droughts, floods, heatwaves, smog, landslides and wildfires have intensified with climate change, wreaking havoc on communities, devastating agricultural systems and straining vital water resources. The impacts ripple through economies and societies, affecting millions of lives and livelihoods. Recognising this urgent challenge, South Africa has made disaster risk reduction a priority of its G20 presidency and established a dedicated Disaster Risk Reduction Working Group. This marks a significant shift in focus, as infrastructure resilience
has historically received limited attention in G20 discussions (see figure 1). This initiative represents an acknowledgement that addressing disaster risk requires coordinated international action at the highest levels of government. FROM PLEDGES TO PREPAREDNESS The First G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Working Group Meeting achieved consensus on six critical priorities: addressing inequality and reducing vulnerabilities, achieving global coverage of early warning systems, building disaster resilient infrastructure, securing adequate financing for disaster risk reduction, strengthening disaster recovery and reconstruction efforts, and implementing ecosystems-based approaches alongside nature-based solutions. These priorities reflect a comprehensive understanding that disaster risk reduction demands multifaceted strategies addressing both immediate needs and long-term resilience. The G20’s commitment to disaster risk reduction builds on previous declarations, which have been limited in scope. At Buenos Aires in 2018, members recognised the importance of comprehensive adaptation strategies, including investment in infrastructure resilient to extreme weather events and disasters, with particular support pledged for vulnerable developing countries and small island states
// JESSICA RAPSON Jessica Rapson is a research associate with the G20 and G7 Research Groups and a machine learning engineer with a multidisciplinary background in both statistical science and public policy. Her work focuses on applications of AI/ ML in optimising decision-making pro- cesses for organisations that serve the public. She has a master’s degree in statistical science from the Univer- sity of Oxford and is a graduate of the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.
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108 // G20 SOUTH AFRICA: THE JOHANNESBURG SUMMIT 2025
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