// EQUALITY: TRADE AND INVESTMENT
G20 performance on trade
As tariff volatility, geopolitical fragmentation and uneven compliance weaken global confidence, South Africa’s presidency aims to restore trust through inclusive growth, investment facilitation and renewed multilateral dialogue
T he 2025 Johannesburg Summit will focus on economic and financial cooperation, technology and innovation and global debt reform. The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report describes short-term expectations as “unsettled”, with armed conflict, misinformation amplified by generative artificial intelligence and societal polarisation dominating. Rising economic nationalism has clouded the global outlook, notably as a result of tariff instability. Trade policy is now the leading source of uncertainty for economists, cited by 97% of chief economists surveyed in May. DELIBERATIONS Since 2008, the G20 has dedicated a total of 18,333 words to trade, for an average of 8% per summit, in its public declarations. In the early years, peaks came at Washington in 2008 with 12%, London in 2009 with 16% and Pittsburgh in 2009 with 10%, then dropping to single digits until Brisbane in 2014 with 12%. After
a dip to 6% at Antalya in 2015, another peak came at Hangzhou in 2016 with 13%. A second sustained dip to single digits followed, until Rome in 2021 with 12%. The Bali Summit in 2022 brought another decline to 9%, and New Delhi in 2013 another to 5%. The Rio de Janeiro Summit in 2024 gave 10% to trade. DECISIONS Since 2008, the G20 has made 213 trade commitments, averaging 5% per summit across all subjects. This places trade fourth among all subjects, after macroeconomic policy, development and financial regulation. At Washington in 2008, leaders made five trade commitments (for 5% of the total there) – making it one of the summits with the lowest number of trade commitments – before jumping to 14 commitments (11%) at London in 2009. Two other peaks came at Seoul in 2010 with 17 (11%) and at Cannes in 2011 with 15 (5%). The next peak came at Antalya in 2015 with 14 (9%), with a continued rise to 24 (11%) at Hangzhou in 2016 and 29 (5%) at Hamburg in 2017. This plunged to five (3%) at Buenos Aires in 2018, and remained at an average of seven per summit (4%) until dipping to an all-time low at Rio in 2024 with just one trade commitment (0.6%). DELIVERY With the 30 assessed priority trade commitments made between 2008 and
Joanna Davies, senior researcher, G20 Research Group
// JOANNA DAVIES Joanna Davies is a senior researcher with the G20 and G7 Research Groups. She holds an MA in bioethics from New York University’s School of Global Public Health, where she focused on neuroethics and political economy. She is currently studying law in London to deepen her expertise in compliance, contracting and governance, with applications to international policy and sustainability.
X-TWITTER @g20rg www.g20.utoronto.ca
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