GOVERNANCE
A s Brazil prepares to host the 2024 G20 Rio Summit, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has identified the reform of global governance institutions as a key priority. This focus on reforming international bodies, such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, underscores Brazil’s vision for a more equitable global order. However, achieving meaningful reform requires G20 members to adhere to their summit commitments, a challenge where compliance has historically been uneven. To ensure success, Brazil can leverage the insights provided by the G20 Compliance Simulator, a tool powered by artificial intelligence designed to predict and improve members’ commitment fulfilment. G20 COMPLIANCE WITH SUMMIT COMMITMENTS G20 members have historically struggled to fully comply with the commitments made at summits. On average, only 54% of G20 commitments are met in full, but compliance varies significantly depending on the issue area. The G20 Compliance Simulator reveals that commitments tied to international organisations – such as the World Bank, IMF and UN – perform slightly better than those that are not. Specifically, full compliance for commitments referring to international
Jessica Rapson, senior researcher, G20 Research Group As summit host, Brazil can leverage the G20 Compliance Simulator to push for vital reforms in global governance AI can power Brazil’s G20 vision
organisations is predicted to be 36.4%, compared to 31.7% for other commitments. This marginal improvement can be attributed to the high visibility and shared interests in global governance reforms, which often involve international cooperation and common goals. However, these figures still leave significant room for improvement, especially considering the central role that these institutions play in shaping the global economic and political landscape. PREDICTIONS ON COMMITMENTS RELATED TO INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS Among G20 members, the European Union and the United Kingdom are predicted to perform the best on commitments related to international organisations, with compliance rates expected between 50% and 60% (see figure 1). In contrast, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia are predicted to see lower compliance rates, between 20% and 30%, with South Africa at the lower end, predicted to meet 10%–20% of its commitments. Compliance related to international organisations is predicted to be highest for commitments related to development, financial regulation and macroeconomic policy, where compliance rates are expected to be as high as 70% or 80% (see figure 2).
Figure 1: Probable compliance with Rio Summit commitments related to international organisations
ƁljŢôíljŢ
Without ministerial summit With ministerial summit
ƅljŢôƁljŢ
ăljŢôƆljŢ
ĊljŢôăljŢ
ƐljŢôĊljŢ
ƗljŢôƑljŢ
ŏljŢôƗljŢ
132
G20 BRAZIL: THE RIO SUMMIT — 2024
globalgovernanceproject.org
Made with FlippingBook. PDF to flipbook with ease