Conversely, commitments about international organisations that involve gender, infrastructure, and migration and refugees are predicted to have lower compliance rates, between 20% and 40%. These areas require more concerted efforts and Brazil, as the host, can play a pivotal role in driving discussions towards stronger accountability mechanisms. REFORMING INSTITUTIONS To improve compliance with commitments related to international organisations, Brazil can focus on several strategic actions, informed by the insights from the G20 Compliance Simulator: 1. Strengthen the use of binding language . Commitments that use strong, binding language have consistently higher compliance rates.
aspirational but as concrete objectives that require follow-through. Increase ministerial meetings on governance reform. The G20 Compliance Simulator shows that holding more G20 ministerial meetings, before and after the summit, can significantly boost compliance. For example, when a ministerial meeting focused on the same issue as the commitment is held before the summit, compliance is predicted to rise to 73%, and to 70% when held afterward. Ministerial meetings focused on global governance reform could bring together finance, foreign affairs and development ministers to align their priorities to support the summit – a recommendation that South Africa should consider for its 2025 G20 presidency. Promote collaboration among high-performing members. The EU and the UK are predicted to have the highest compliance
rates on commitments involving international organisations. Brazil can encourage these members to take leadership roles in global governance reform by sharing best practices with lower-performing countries such as South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia. Targeted diplomatic engagement and better resource allocation for lower income members could foster greater commitment to meeting the summit’s objectives. compliance areas. Brazil should recognise that commitments related to gender, infrastructure, and migration and refugees are areas with historically lower compliance rates when linked to international organisations. These sectors may require special attention during the summit, including stronger monitoring mechanisms and more detailed action plans. As host of the 2024 G20 summit in Rio, Brazil is uniquely positioned to push for meaningful reforms in global governance institutions including the IMF, World Bank and UN. By leveraging the insights provided by the G20 Compliance Simulator, Brazil – and South Africa in 2025 – can guide the G20 towards structuring commitments that are more likely to be fulfilled. The G20 Compliance Simulator can be accessed at g20-utoronto.shinyapps. io/compliance-tool/. Full data and code are available at github.com/rapsoj/ g20-compliance. If you have any questions about the G20 Compliance Simulator, please contact g20@utoronto.ca
2.
4. Address challenges in low
Brazil should advocate for clear, enforceable terms in commitments related to reforming the IMF, World Bank and UN. Strengthening the language of commitments ensures that they are viewed not merely as
3.
Figure 2: Probable Rio Summit compliance related to international organisations, by subject
Development
Environment
Financial regulation
Information and communications technology
Macroeconomic policy
Climate change
Food and agriculture
Health
International taxation
Labour and employment
Crime and corruption
Energy
International cooperation
JESSICA RAPSON Jessica Rapson is a senior researcher at the G20 and G7 Research Groups and a machine learning engineer with a multidisciplinary background in both statistical science and public policy. Her work focuses on applications of ±ųƋĜĀÏĜ±ĬĜĹƋåĬĬĜčåĹÏå±ĹÚĵ±ÏĘĜĹåĬå±ųĹĜĹčĜĹŅŞƋĜĵĜŸĜĹč decision-making processes for organisations that serve the public. She has a master’s degree in statistical science from the University of Oxford and is a graduate of the University of ŅųŅĹƋŅűŸaƚĹĩÏĘŅŅĬŅü:ĬŅƱĬeý±ĜųŸ±ĹÚ{ƚÆĬĜÏ{ŅĬĜÏƼţ
International ĀűĹÏĜ±Ĭ institute reform
Terrorism
Trade
Infrastructure
Migration and refugees
Gender
@g20_rg : www.g20.utoronto.ca
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globalgovernanceproject.org
2024 — G20 BRAZIL: THE RIO SUMMIT
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