ARG Insights Unemployment
As of June 2023, the national unemployment rate was 3.6% — essentially the same as the March numbers we presented last quarter. Los Angeles came in at 4.8% and Orange County landed at a rock-bottom 3.2% ( see charts on page 11). These unemployment rates remain historically low even after the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to tame inflation. As noted in our last Quarterly Barometer, the job market continues to be incredibly hot. The Accounting and Finance sector remains even tighter. We have seen the talent supply in Southern California dwindle for various reasons, including people leaving the industry in pursuit of other careers, out-of- state relocations, and fewer college graduates entering the field. The demand for Accounting and Finance professionals continues to outpace the supply. Job Growth, Labor Force Participation, and Job Openings According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment increased by another 209,000 in June. Nonfarm employment has grown by an average of 278,000 per month over the first 6 months of 2023 — lower than the average of 399,000 per month we saw in 2022, but still quite robust. Furthermore, the job market remains above pre-pandemic norms. To put this in perspective: Between 2010 and 2019, the economy added an average of 183,000 jobs per month. So, the job market may have slowed a bit, but it is still incredibly strong — far outpacing anything we’ve seen in recent history. The labor force participation rate from March to June 2023 remained steady at 62.7% despite job growth nearing the pre-pandemic era high of 63.3% (see chart on page 13).
6 ARG Quarterly Barometer Q3 2023
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