the rennie review
DATA-DRIVEN INSIGHTS INTO SALES, LISTINGS, AND PRICING TRENDS FOR SEATTLE AND BELLEVUE
published June 2020
table of contents
Each month, we release the rennie review, a detailed look at the real estate marketplace in Seattle and Bellevue. This report examines our take on the latest NWMLS data for the Seattle Region, overarching market conditions and detailed county- and city-level stats.
02 INTRO 03 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 04 KING COUNTY - RESIDENTIAL 05 KING COUNTY - CONDO 06 SEATTLE - RESIDENTIAL 07 SEATTLE - CONDO 08 BELLEVUE - RESIDENTIAL 09 BELLEVUE - CONDO
Andrew Ramlo VP Intelligence aramlo@rennie.com
Ryan Berlin Senior Economist rberlin@rennie.com
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of May 14, 2020. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 2
R esilience & green shoots the hallmarks of M ay’s market data While one month of data does not a trend make, early signs of an economic recovery have emerged against the backdrop of a housing market that remains balanced.
Labour market green shoots: have we reached the bottom? While the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) attracted much unwanted attention for their misclassification of furloughed workers over the past two months (labelling them as “employed but absent fromwork” rather than the more appropriate “unemployed on temporary layoff”, which resulted in a too- low unemployment rate), the employment landscape did improve inMay. Indeed, after shedding more than 21 million jobs inMarch and April, non-farm payrolls across the US grew by 2.5 million workers inMay--easily the largest one-month employment surge ever. With theMay increase in jobs being led by contact-intensive sectors initially hit hardest during our COVID-19 response--leisure and hospitality added more than 1.2 million jobs inMay, accounting for almost 50% of total job gains--we remain cautiously optimistic about US economic prospects. And we expect modest additional employment gains in June across the US, which in turn will support continued increases in home sales.
one year earlier, with reduced market activity that set in at the end of March continuing to prevail. But having said that, there were still 2,092 sales County-wide inMay--meaning that 2,092 households made a significant financial commitment during the worst economic downturn we’ve experienced in almost a century. That is somewhat remarkable. On the supply side of the market, inventory has become increasingly constrained, with May representing the 10th straight month of year-over-year declines in total homes for sale. Compare this to the lead-up to the 2008/9 Great Recession and its aftermath, when King County saw inventory expand each month over a two-year period. Prices have consequently remained stable throughMay, with the County’s median sales price up 2% versus its pre-pandemic level in February.
To say the past fewmonths have been challenging would be an understatement. Everyone has been impacted by COVID-19, directly or indirectly, and more or less, at home, in the workplace, and in our communities. Collectively we have been dealing with much uncertainty while trying to synthesize a dizzying amount of information aimed at keeping us safe, secure, and solvent. Against this backdrop, it was welcome news to observe a number of positive storylines emerging out of May’s data on the local real estate market and the broader economy. The housing market has been resilient and remains balanced It’s true that MLS closed sales across King County inMay were down 41% versus
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of May 14, 2020. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
king county
RES IDENT IAL MAY
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
7 % DOWN
3 % DOWN
43 % DOWN
38 % DOWN
-
1.6 SELLER’S
There were 2,646 residential homes for sale in King County in May, 1.6% below last month and 43% lower vs May 2019.
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
Residential closed sales rose by 3% month- over-month, to 1,659, but were 38% lower year-over-year.
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No.
% Change
No.
% Change
There was 1.6 months of inventory for residential homes in May, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The median sold price in May was $679,950, 5% below the previous month and a 3% decrease vs last year. The average sold price for residential homes was $792,204, 5% lower month-over-month and 7% below May of last year.
HOMES FOR SALE
2,646 1,659
2,689 1,605
-1.6% 4,683
-43% -38%
CLOSED SALES
3%
2,666
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
1.6
1.7
-5%
1.76
-9% -3% -7%
$679,950 $715,000 $792,204 $830,942
-5% $699,999 -5% $851,613
AVERAGE PRICE PSF
-
-
-
-
-
RATIO OF MEDIAN PRICES ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$725,000
$699,999 $680,000
$679,950
$660,000 $650,000 $640,776
1.66
1.64
4,683
1.61
4,513
4,294
2,687
2,646
2,519
2,666
2,625
1,741
1,973
1,969
1,842
1,659
1,269
May-19
Apr-20
May-20
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
. . . 0 0 0 0 0 MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE SELLER'S MARKET BALANCED BUYER'S MARKET
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of June 12, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 4
CONDO MAY king county
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
2 % DOWN
3 % DOWN
24 % DOWN
52 % DOWN
0.9 % DOWN
2.8 SELLER’S
The number of condo homes for sale in King County, at 996, were up 10% month-over-month but fell 24% vs last year. May’s condo closed sales, at 356, were 15% below last month and 52% lower than last year. There was 2.8 months of inventory for condos in May, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The condo median sold price in May was $422,250, down 1.8% vs April and a 0.9% decrease from May 2019. The average sold price was $509,076 with an aver- age PSF sales price of $458 (up 0.7% but down 1.5%, respectively, vs April).
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No. 902 420 2.1
% Change
No.
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
996 356 2.8
10% -15% 30%
1,309
-24% -52% 58% -0.9%
CLOSED SALES
741 1.77
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE AVERAGE PRICE PSF
$422,250 $430,000 $509,076 $505,459
-1.8% $426,000 0.7% $519,266 -1.5% $472
-2% -3%
$458
$465
AVG PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$439,225 $422,250
$426,000
$400,000 $399,950 $422,500 $410,000
1,356
1,309
1,281
996
922
807
586
741
668
612
535
494
366
356
KING COUNTY
SEATTLE
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
NUMBER OF BEDROOMS ›
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
SELLER'S MARKET
BALANCED
79
BUYER'S MARKET
3+ bdrms
207
182
2 bdrms
465
95
. . . . 0 0 0 0
<2 bdrms
324
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of June 12, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 5
seattle
RES IDENT IAL MAY
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
3 % DOWN
39 % DOWN
33 % DOWN
1.9 % DOWN
-
1.6 SELLER’S
The number of residential homes for sale in Seattle in May, at 901, were 7% higher month-over-month but 39% lower year-over-year. With 547 in May, residential closed sales were 5% higher month-over-month but 33% below last year. There was 1.6 months of inventory for residential homes in May, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The median sold price in May was $749,000, 6% below April and 3% lower vs May 2019. The average sold price was $867,274, 4% below the previous month and 1.9% lower vs May 2019.
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No. 840 522 1.6
% Change
No.
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
901 547 1.6
7% 5% 2%
1,477
-39% -33%
CLOSED SALES
813 1.8
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
-9% -3%
$749,000 $799,975 $867,274 $901,789
-6% $775,000 -4% $884,475
-1.9%
AVERAGE PRICE PSF
-
-
-
-
-
RATIO OF MEDIAN PRICES ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$782,750 $749,000
$775,000 $741,000
$730,000 $720,000 $719,975
1.71
1,477
1.61
1,386
1.57
1,405
903
901
759
813
807
548
664
648
614
547
442
May-19
Apr-20
May-20
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
SELLER'S MARKET
BALANCED
BUYER'S MARKET
. . . 0 0 0 0 0
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of June 12, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 6
seattle
CONDO MAY
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
4 % DOWN
0.9 % DOWN
23 % DOWN 0.5 % DOWN
50 % DOWN
3.8 SELLER’S
There were 527 condo homes for sale in Seattle in May, 12% above April but 23% lower vs May 2019. May’s condo closed sales decreased by 5% month- over-month and fell by 50% year-over-year. There was 3.8 months of inventory for condos in May, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The condo median sold price in May was $477,495, 2% above April but 0.5% lower vs May 2019. The average sold price was $553,075, 5% above last month; the average PSF sales price was $578, down 4% from last month.
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No. 469 147 3.2
% Change
No. 683 282 2.4
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
527 140 3.8
12% -5% 18%
-23% -50% 55% -0.5% -0.9%
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
$477,495 $467,000 $553,075 $525,374
2% $480,000 5% $558,305
AVERAGE PRICE PSF
$578
$604
-4%
$601
-4%
AVG PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$483,500 $477,495
$480,000 $448,000
$447,500 $450,000 $453,000
706
683
666
527
502
428
309
282
247
233
186
170
140
135
SEATTLE
KING COUNTY
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
NUMBER OF BEDROOMS
›
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
17
3+ bdrms
54
SELLER'S MARKET
63
BALANCED
2 bdrms
215
BUYER'S MARKET
60
. . . . 0 0 0 0 QD
<2 bdrms
258
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of June 12, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 7
bellevue
RES IDENT IAL MAY
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
6 % DOWN
8 % DOWN
41 % DOWN
56 % DOWN
-
2.3 SELLER’S
There were 156 residential homes for sale in the Bellevue market area in May, 22% above last month but 41% lower vs May 2019. Residential closed sales increased by 3% month-over-month, to 68, but were 56% lower year-over-year. There was 2.3 months of inventory for residential homes in May, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The median sold price in May was $1.01M, 7% below the previous month and an 8% decrease vs last year. The average sold price for residential homes was $1.20M, 8% lower month-over-month and 6% lower vs May of last year.
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No. 128
% Change
No. 264 155 1.7
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
156
22%
-41% -56% 35%
CLOSED SALES
68
66
3%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
2.3
1.9
18%
$1,014,500 $1,095,000 $1,198,082 $1,304,758
-7% $1,100,000 -8% $1,273,809
-8% -6%
AVERAGE PRICE PSF
-
-
-
-
-
RATIO OF MEDIAN PRICES ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
MILLIONS
$1.37
$1.21
$1.14 $1.14
$1.10
$1.06
$1.01
1.85
1.80
1.63
264
251
223
156
134
128
155
134
68
103
81
75
68
42
May-19
Apr-20
May-20
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
SELLER'S MARKET
BALANCED
BUYER'S MARKET
. . . 0 0 0 0 0 QD
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of June 12, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 8
bellevue
CONDO MAY
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
18 % DOWN
75 % DOWN
18 % UP
15 % UP
5 % UP
3.2 SELLER’S
The number of condo homes for sale in Bellevue, at 83, were up 6% month-over-month but fell 18% vs last year. May’s condo closed sales, at 26, were 42% below last month and 75% lower than last year. There was 3.2 months of inventory for condos in May, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The condo median sold price in May was $620,500, up 1.9% vs April and a 5% increase from May 2019. The average sold price was $828,177 with an aver- age PSF sales price of $626 (16% and 5% higher, respectively, vs April).
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No.
% Change
No. 101 102 1.0
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
83 26
78 45
6%
-18% -75% 222%
CLOSED SALES
-42% 84%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE AVERAGE PRICE PSF
3.2
1.7
$620,500 $609,000 $828,177 $715,295
1.9% $593,100 16% $699,658
5%
18% 15%
$626
$594
5%
$542
AVG PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$665,000
$620,500
$593,100 $622,000 $607,500
$572,500
$484,000
114
102
96
83
73
101
62
32 32
60
55
54
47
26
BELLEVUE KING COUNTY
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
NUMBER OF BEDROOMS ›
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
5
3+ bdrms
21
SELLER'S MARKET
BALANCED
13
BUYER'S MARKET
2 bdrms
41
8
. . . . 0 0 0 0 QD
<2 bdrms
21
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of June 12, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 9
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Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of May 14, 2020. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 10
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