R esilience & green shoots the hallmarks of M ay’s market data While one month of data does not a trend make, early signs of an economic recovery have emerged against the backdrop of a housing market that remains balanced.
Labour market green shoots: have we reached the bottom? While the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) attracted much unwanted attention for their misclassification of furloughed workers over the past two months (labelling them as “employed but absent fromwork” rather than the more appropriate “unemployed on temporary layoff”, which resulted in a too- low unemployment rate), the employment landscape did improve inMay. Indeed, after shedding more than 21 million jobs inMarch and April, non-farm payrolls across the US grew by 2.5 million workers inMay--easily the largest one-month employment surge ever. With theMay increase in jobs being led by contact-intensive sectors initially hit hardest during our COVID-19 response--leisure and hospitality added more than 1.2 million jobs inMay, accounting for almost 50% of total job gains--we remain cautiously optimistic about US economic prospects. And we expect modest additional employment gains in June across the US, which in turn will support continued increases in home sales.
one year earlier, with reduced market activity that set in at the end of March continuing to prevail. But having said that, there were still 2,092 sales County-wide inMay--meaning that 2,092 households made a significant financial commitment during the worst economic downturn we’ve experienced in almost a century. That is somewhat remarkable. On the supply side of the market, inventory has become increasingly constrained, with May representing the 10th straight month of year-over-year declines in total homes for sale. Compare this to the lead-up to the 2008/9 Great Recession and its aftermath, when King County saw inventory expand each month over a two-year period. Prices have consequently remained stable throughMay, with the County’s median sales price up 2% versus its pre-pandemic level in February.
To say the past fewmonths have been challenging would be an understatement. Everyone has been impacted by COVID-19, directly or indirectly, and more or less, at home, in the workplace, and in our communities. Collectively we have been dealing with much uncertainty while trying to synthesize a dizzying amount of information aimed at keeping us safe, secure, and solvent. Against this backdrop, it was welcome news to observe a number of positive storylines emerging out of May’s data on the local real estate market and the broader economy. The housing market has been resilient and remains balanced It’s true that MLS closed sales across King County inMay were down 41% versus
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of May 14, 2020. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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