researchers from the University of Illinois found by analyzing excess deaths from March through the end of November. Among Americans aged 15 to 54, there were roughly 56,000 excess deaths, of which about 22,000 involved COVID-19, leaving 34,000 from other causes. The Canadian government also reported especially high mortality among Canadians under 45: nearly 1,700 excess deaths from May through November, with only 50 of those deaths attributed to COVID-19. “We don’t know exactly why, but a lot of adults were dying last year who would not have ordinarily died, and it wasn’t just because of COVID,” says Sheldon H. Jacobson, one of the Illinois researchers. “It’s possible that some of the COVID-19 deaths were undercounted, but there were many deaths due to other causes. Shutdowns certainly caused mental health issues, and a lot of preventive medical treatments were delayed.” The lockdowns may also have saved some lives, but there’s still no good evidence. When the 50 states are ranked according to the stringency of their lockdown restrictions, you can see one obvious pattern: the more restrictive the state, the higher the unemployment rate. But there’s no pattern in the rate of COVID-19 mortality. International comparisons yield similar results. One shows that countries with more stringent lockdowns tend to have slightly higher levels of COVID-19 mortality. Another suggests that European countries with stricter lockdowns have performed worse economically while also suffering higher rates of excess mortality.
When the 50 states are ranked according to the stringency of their lockdown restrictions, you can see one obvious pattern: the more restrictive the state, the higher the unemployment rate. But there’s no pattern in the rate of COVID-19 mortality. Meantime, more than two dozen studies have challenged the effectiveness of lockdowns, relying mainly not on mathematical models but on trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Studies have repeatedly shown that school closures have little or no impact on viral spread and mortality. By comparing regions and countries, researchers have found that trends in infections were similar regardless of whether there were mandated business closures or stay-at-home orders. It’s true, as lockdown proponents argue, that many factors could confound these broad comparisons. Some places are more vulnerable to COVID-19 because of geographic and demographic variables, and so may be more likely to impose lockdowns in response to a surge. But other methods of measuring the effects of lockdowns have also been inconclusive. Some researchers reported early in the pandemic that lockdowns slowed viral spread and reduced mortality, but those conclusions were based on mathematical models with widely varying – and sometimes quite dubious – assumptions about what would have happened without lockdowns.
American Consequences
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