DEATH AND LOCKDOWNS
It seems intuitively obvious that lockdowns would save lives by reducing social interactions and therefore the spread of the virus, but there are other consequences. Lockdowns force people to spend more time indoors, where viruses spread more easily. By preventing younger people from socializing and being exposed to the virus, a lengthy lockdown slows the build-up of herd immunity in this low-risk population, so eventually the virus may infect and kill more vulnerable older people. Last spring and summer, public health officials attributed California’s low rate of COVID-19 mortality to its stringent lockdown policies, and they predicted disaster for Florida, which reopened early and has remained one of the least-restrictive states. But California’s lockdowns didn’t prevent a severe outbreak in the winter. While the state’s COVID-19 mortality rate remains slightly below the national average, its overall rate of excess mortality since the pandemic began is
well above the national average. In Florida, by contrast, the rate of excess mortality is below the national average and significantly below California’s, especially among younger adults. Public health officials widely denounced Sweden for refusing to lock down and mandate masks last spring, when its COVID-19 mortality was high. A computer model projected nearly 100,000 Swedish deaths from the virus last year. But that prediction turned out to be 10 times too high, and other countries have since caught up with Sweden. While it suffered another outbreak this winter, mainly in regions that were not hit hard in the spring, Sweden’s cumulative death toll per capita from COVID-19 is now slightly below the European Union’s average and about 20% lower than America’s. When it comes to preventing excess deaths, Sweden has done at least as well as the rest of Europe or better, depending how one calculates. To determine excess mortality,
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May 2021
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