statisticians first define the baseline for a “normal” number of deaths in each country. This can be done by extending the mortality trend of the previous years or by taking an average of past mortality rates, with adjustments for the changing age structure of the population. The CDC’s method, for instance, shows 18% more deaths than normal last year in America, while other methods put the figure at 13%. It’s debatable which measure is better, but as long as any single method is applied consistently everywhere, it can gauge how one place has fared relative to another. A group of researchers in Israel and Germany calculates that there have been 11% more deaths than normal in Sweden since the pandemic began, which is slightly lower than the median among European countries. Statisticians at the Economist also rank Sweden’s excess mortality slightly lower than the European median since the pandemic began. A team at Oxford University, which
counted deaths for all of 2020, calculates that Sweden’s rate of excess mortality last year was just 1.5%, which was lower than two-thirds of the countries in Europe. By any measure of excess mortality, Sweden has fared much better than countries with especially strict lockdowns and mask mandates, like the United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal. It hasn’t done as well as Norway and Finland, where mortality has been no higher than normal (and below normal, by some calculations). Critics have often noted this disparity as an argument against Sweden’s approach. But the problem with this “Neighbor Argument,” as Oxford’s Paul Yowell calls it, is that the neighbors have followed policies like Sweden’s for most of the pandemic. Norway and Finland were stricter than Sweden in the spring, when they quickly imposed border controls and closed schools and some businesses. But they also reopened
WHAT'SWRONGWITH THESE PANDEMIC PICTURES? Hint: Guess which one was taken in Sweden (AP Photo)
American Consequences
41
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online