The same is true for giant oil fields worldwide.
In 2009, Swedish professors Mikael Höök and Kjell Aleklett from Uppsala University partnered with Robert Hirsch – senior energy advisor at economic research and consulting firm Management Information Services – on an energy policy report titled, “Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production.” Their research shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is speeding up with time. They say the world faces an increasing oil-supply challenge… Analysis of our 331-giant field dataset going back in time showed that the world average decline rate was near 0% until roughly 1960, when overall decline began to increase, as more and more giant oil fields left the plateau phase. Thereafter, production from new giants failed to compensate for the declines of existing giant production. The average decline rate of the giant oilfields was found to increase by around 0.15% per year. Extrapolating the 1960- 2005 trend yielded an average decline rate of nearly 10% by 2030 (Figure 10). This giant field trend should have a strong influence on the future global decline rate in oil production. [World oil supplies are in decline.] The non-OPEC decline rate in 2030 is likely to be 11%. The OPEC decline rate [is likely to be] only 8% for reasons further explained below. The production-weighted decline rate has been behaving somewhat differently, especially since 1985, compared to the average decline rate. The reason for this change is the introduction of new technologies, most notably horizontal drilling and fracturing techniques, in many major fields in former Soviet Union and the Middle East . Using new technologies, it was possible to halt the decline in many giants and keep production stable for some time .
44
Made with FlippingBook - Online Brochure Maker