Eventually, the average and the production-weighted declines must follow each other . The currently stable production weighted decline cannot be expected to continue far into the future, once technology enhanced fields reach the final onset of decline . The world has had a false sense of security, temporarily created by decline-delaying technology introduction in underdeveloped fields.
So what does all this mean?
In 1986, global decline rates were 3.5%. These were conventional oil fields with long linear declines. Spare capacity and the ensuing oil glut lasted until the mid-1990s. In 2017, global decline rates are somewhere between 6% and 10%. Today’s 2 million to 3 million barrels-per-day surplus will not last nearly so long. The new production coming on line from unconventional fields in the Bakken Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, and in the Permian Basin is masking global production declines. Remember, these unconventional fields
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