MARKET BREAKDOWN
REVITALIZATION
Market Trend Spotlight: 3 Indicators of Effective CommunityRevitalization
SPOTTING ECONOMIC RECOVERY BEFORE THE CROWD ARRIVES.
by Carole VanSickle Ellis
s the third quarter of 2018 begins, both national and local housing mar- kets are still experiencing pinched inventory. That is good news for today’s sellers and rent- al investors, who hope to garner top dollar in tight markets for both retail sales and rental properties, but it makes the classic real estate investor’s mantra, “Buy low and sell high,” somewhat more difficult to accomplish. Markets still not fully recovered from the mid-2000’s housing crash or that have experienced post-industrial decline over previous decades represent this type of opportunity. However, not every foundering housing market represents the opportunity to buy at the bottom and sell for top dollar later. Sometimes, the bottom is just the beginning of the end. Savvy investors must learn to spot the signs of potential for true economic A
growth and stability in a market while simultaneously identifying profitable strategies to use in the event that their projections fall through.
POST-INDUSTRIAL: A term used to describe an economy that no longer relies on heavy industry, such as manufacturing.
REVERSE THE NORMS Identifying a post-industrial market poised for true revitalization sometimes means looking outside the traditional “positive market indicator” box. For exam- ple, conventional wisdom guides investors to look for rising population numbers as a sign of market stability. However, commu- nities on the cusp of revitalization usually have level or even slightly declining pop- ulation numbers. For example, in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. Census numbers indicate that the city lost just under 1 percent of its population between 2010 and 2016.
However, between 2000 and 2010, the city lost 25 percent of its population. While the trend has not wholly reversed, this is a dramatic deceleration that might warrant further investigation. SEEK RESPONSIVE, INVOLVED LOCAL GOVERNMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE Some communities are destined to
62 | think realty magazine :: september 2018
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