The projected effects of changes to APR closely mirror those of BPR. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (64%) anticipate that the changes will lead to a reduction in investment of more than 20%, while a further 20% expect a moderate decrease of between 10% and 20% . Only 10% believe their investment levels will remain stable or increase. This results in an average projected fall in investment of 15.5%. Turnover will also be affected. Around 32% of respondents predict a fall of more than 20% , with just under one-third forecasting a decline between 10% and 20%. The average expected decrease in turnover is 7.5%. Employment levels are similarly vulnerable. 22% of respondents anticipate a reduction in employee numbers greater than 20%, with another 22% expecting a smaller decline between 10% and 20% . On average, employment is projected to fall by 10.6% as a result of the APR changes.
It is worth noting that amongst businesses affected by APR, 86% have fewer than 10 employees, indicating that even modest reductions in numbers may represent a significant proportion of their workforce.
Figure 4: The expected impact of the changes to APR on family businesses (% of respondents, main business indicators, N=2,765)
70%
64%
60%
50%
44%
40%
32%
29%
28%
30%
22%
22%
20%
20%
8%
10%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Signi fi cantly decrease (more than 20%)
Somewhat decrease (10% to 20%)
Remain unchanged (+/-10% change)
Somewhat increase (10% to 20%)
Signi fi cantly increase (more than 20%)
Investment
Turnover
Number of employees
Source: CBI Economics Survey (2025)
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