Figure 9: Theory of change
Increase tax revenue
Increase in UK economic activity
Net economic & fiscal impact
Reduced investment
Reduced headcount
Increased taxburden on businesses andfarms dueto increase in costof succession
Changes to BPR and APR come into force
Reduced turnover
Decrease in UK economic activity
Partial/full sale of business
Reduced stability
Source: CBI Economics Survey (2025)
As an input into economic impact modelling, our subsequent analysis of GVA, jobs and fiscal impacts focuses only on the reduced turnover of family-owned businesses. It does not analyse the impact of reduced investment or headcount by family-owned business. This is because turnover reflects the total output of goods and services a business sells, whereas investment represents only a subset of business activity.
Reduced family business activity due to BPR change will lead to a £13.4 billion loss in GVA over the next five years
Changes in the turnover of family-owned businesses over the next five years formed a key input in this economic modelling. The BPR reforms announced in the Autumn Budget 2024 are expected to see turnover fall by an average of 7.7% , reflecting the operational and structural adjustments required to manage ownership transitions between April 2026 and April 2030. We also anticipate an average 15.8% fall in investment and a 10.1% reduction in employment .
20
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online