In our previous report on the potential effects of changes to BPR, we projected a £9.4 billion loss in GVA over five years 2 . Our updated analysis – based on a significantly larger sample and accounting for anticipated impacts before April 2026 – indicates that the economic cost is likely to be even greater.
The updated modelling suggests:
• A total GVA loss of £13.4 billion over five years – equivalent to 0.6% of UK GVA in 2022.
• £5.9 billion of the total loss is directly attributable to reduced activity within family businesses, with a wider multiplier effect of 1.28 across the economy, demonstrating impacts across value chains.
• 59% of the total impact is expected to occur between October 2024 and April 2026, driven by adjustments businesses are making ahead of the policy changes.
Figure 10: GVA losses associated with reduced family business activity resulting from changes to BPR (£m, 2024 prices, year by year)
-
-3,456
-2,000
-5,902
-4,000
-1,334
-956
-6,000
-2,125
-2,278
-8,000
-1,565
-1,632
-604 -433 -962
-10,000
-881 -340 -244 -541
-3,628
-12,000
-14,000
-16,000
Between October 2024 and April 2026
Between May 2026 and April2028
Between May 2028 and April2030
Total
Induced GVA
Initial GVA
DirectGVA
Indirect GVA
Source: CBI Economics Survey (2025)
2 Family Business UK and CBI Economics, (2025). Taxing Family Business Futures: The economic and fiscal implications of reforms to Business Property Relief for UK family businesses. [Accessible here: https://www.familybusinessuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/FBUK_BPR_HR.pdf]
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