Reduced family farm activity due to APR change will lead to a £1.4 billion loss in GVA over the next five years
The changes to APR set out in the Autumn Budget are expected to lead to an average 7.5% reduction in turnover, a 15.5% reduction in investment and a 10.6% reduction in the number of employees . These result in a GVA loss over a five-year period of £1.4 billion. Of this, £0.6 billion is directly associated with the activity of family farms. Across the rest of the economy there is a multiplier effect of 2.16, producing significant ripple effects across the rest of the economy. For every £1 in GVA lost from family farm activity, £2.16 of economic activity is lost across the rest of the economy. Similarly to BPR, GVA impacts are front-loaded to the period between October 2024 and April 2026, with 59% of the loss occurring within this period.
Figure 11: GVA losses associated with reduced family farm activity resulting from changes to APR (£m, 2024 prices, year by year)
-
-
-
-264
-200
-451
-168
-400
-141
-287
-600
-261
-800
-241
-120 -76 -64 -118
-1,000
-1,200
-446
-67 -43 -36 -67
-1,400
-1,600
Between October 2024 and April 2026
Between May 2026 and April2028
Between May 2028 and April2030
Total
Induced GVA
Initial GVA
DirectGVA
Indirect GVA
Source: CBI Economics Survey (2025)
22
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