The UK could potentially lose 208,500 FTE jobs over the next five years from reduced family business and farm activity
In addition to GVA, we modelled the impact of changes to BPR and APR on employment in terms of FTE jobs. Reduced activity resulting from the changes will lead to the potential loss of 208,500 FTE jobs over the next five years, with 122,100 of these occurring before April 2026. Within this figure, 180,000 FTE job losses are derived from the cap on BPR, which is equivalent to 0.7% of all UK jobs. Almost 90,000 of these arise directly from reduced activities of family-owned businesses, whilst a further 90,100 are lost due to negative impacts within their supply chain and reduced employee spending.
Figure 12: Employment losses associated with reduced family business activity due to BPR changes (FTE jobs, year by year)
-
-20,000
-52,701
-40,000
-89,988
-60,000
-17,285
-11,810
-80,000
-23,689
-100,000
-29,514
-23,858
-120,000
-20,165
-7,825 -5,346 -10,724
-140,000
-4,405 -3,009 -6,037 -13,430
-160,000
-40,450
-180,000
-200,000
Between October 2024 and April 2026
Between May 2026 and April 2028
Between May 2028 and April 2030
Total
Initial FTE Jobs
Direct FTE Jobs
Indirect FTE Jobs
Induced FTE Jobs
Source: CBI Economics Survey (2025)
Capping APR at £1m will result in more than 28,300 job losses in the farming sector and its supply chains, equivalent to an 8.4% decrease in agriculture sector employment. 13,500 of these losses result directly from the reduced activities of family farms, whilst a further 14,700 are lost due to negative impacts across supply chains and reduced employee spending. Almost 60% of job losses occur before the policy change takes effect, further demonstrating the importance of considering the behavioral change in projecting fiscal impacts.
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