Figure 13: Employment losses associated with reduced family business activity due to APR changes (FTE jobs, year by year)
-
-7,958
-5,000
-13,588
-2,766
-10,000
-2,084
-15,000
-3,815
-4,723
-3,602
-20,000
-3,558
-1,252 -943 -1,727
-25,000
-6,514
-2,028
-705 -531 -972
-30,000
Between October 2024 and April 2026
Between May 2026 and April 2028
Between May 2028 and April 2030
Total
Initial FTE Jobs
Direct FTE Jobs
Indirect FTE Jobs
Induced FTE Jobs
There will be a negative fiscal impact from BPR and APR changes of just under £2 billion
In October 2024 the Office for Budget Responsibility set out costings for the expected tax revenue to be raised by the changes to APR and BPR 3 . The Exchequer expects to raise £1.8 billion from family-owned businesses and farms over a five-year period, starting at £231 million in 2026/27, rising to £493 million in 2027/28 and reaching £522 million in 2028/29 and 2029/30. This policy costing accounts for behavioural response but was marked as having a high degree of uncertainty. Through discussions with the family business community about the policy changes, we identified that businesses were exhibiting behavioural changes as soon as the changes were announced rather than waiting until the policy takes effect in 2026. Consequently, we expanded on the research in our previous report to capture the impacts starting from the time of the announcement.
3 Office for Budget Responsibility, (2024). Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2024. Link.
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