The findings from this report indicate that family businesses and farms have already started to adjust their behaviours in anticipation of the proposed changes to APR and BPR. These changes are expected to reduce economic activity among family-owned businesses and farms, reducing the Exchequer’s tax take via lower production, spending and income-related taxes. CBI-Economics estimate that the changes will result in a fiscal loss of £1.9 billion across the modelling period, with the largest losses occurring ahead of the reforms coming into force in April 2026. Figure 14 presents the negative fiscal impact from BPR changes across the five-year period, starting in 2024/25. Over the next five years, the fiscal gain from the policy is expected to be £1,378m. However, CBI-Economics modelling suggests total fiscal contributions foregone from reduced economic activity will amount to £3,241m, resulting in a net fiscal loss of £1.86 billion. The most significant negative impacts are largely front- loaded in the 2024/25 period and these outweigh the small fiscal gain seen in 2028/29 and 2029/30.
Figure 14: Fiscal losses for the Exchequer due to BPR changes (2024/25 – 2029/30, £m)
£1,000
£500
£0
-£500
-£1,000
Net Fiscal Impact: -£1.86 billion
-£1,500
-£2,000
-£2,500
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year4
Year 5
Net Fiscal Impact
Fiscal Gain
Fiscal Loss
Source: CBI Economics Survey (2025)
25
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