Figure 15 demonstrates that reduced economic activity arising from APR changes will lead to a net fiscal loss of £13m. The Government expects a £387m uplift in tax receipts but the analysis indicates this will be nullified by a £400m lowering in receipts as activity declines elsewhere in the economy. In line with the fiscal impacts of removing BPR, the largest fiscal losses are front-loaded to 2024/25.
Figure 15: Fiscal losses for the Exchequer due to APR changes (2024/25 – 2029/30, £m)
£150
£100
£50
£0
-£50
-£100
Net Fiscal Impact: -£13 million
-£150
-£200
-£250
-£300
Before Apr 2026
2026/2027
2027/2028
2028/2029
2029/30
Net Fiscal Impact
Fiscal Gain
Fiscal Loss
Source: CBI Economics Survey (2025)
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