as more important to its security than Iran. European policies towards Iran have been guided more by its involve- ment in Ukraine than its general policies or its nuclear programme. The current war in the Gulf adversely affects Ukraine because Russia has benefited from sanc- tions being lifted on its sale of oil, which it can now sell at a much higher price. There are also concerns about con- strained weapons supplies for Ukraine, and about any shift in the balance of power in Asia, regarding the availability of defensive missiles around China. Another concern is that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could be an exam- ple for the closure of Bab-al-Mandeb and trade through the Red Sea, as well as for the straits of Malacca and Taiwan. What are the prospects for rebuilding Iran and the Middle East? The price tag is enormous. In the case of Lebanon and Gaza, the G7 will be asked for huge investments. The Gulf countries themselves will have to spend a huge amount to rebuild their damaged energy infrastructure, and a great deal more to provide resilience and protection for both military and civilian infrastructure. That might affect G7 members positively, because the Gulf countries would look to them for rebuilding. Iran is looking for sanctions to be lifted. It seeks economic relief, greater integration into the global economy and
the ability to rebuild the $270 billion in damage it suffered during the war. If – and that’s a big if – that’s facilitated by whatever end-of-the-war deal there is, it could involve G7 members. How can the G7 leaders best respond in Évian? The US is going to ask G7 leaders to align themselves with its policy. But the G7 will also have to respond to the demands of allies and trade partners in the region – the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and also Lebanon, Syria, Israel will all be asking for various things.
But this massive catastrophic war in the Middle East is connected to the wars in Lebanon and Gaza. The G7 must think about what regional order can come out of this war that would give everyone in the Middle East a pathway to both secu- rity and a non-repetition of war, and allow economic reconstruction for all. The old order is now completely gone. G7 leaders have to look at what a new order would look like and how they would work with various stakeholders in the region. The region is already toying with new formulas. So G7 leaders must listen very intently and then develop a theory for how security, stability and peace might look – what a balance of power could look like, and how to help establish it in collaboration and coopera- tion with regional actors. Certain vectors are important: con- tinuation of peace in Gaza, establishing peace in Lebanon, helping Syria stand on its own feet, what sort of peace in the Persian Gulf region can allow coun- tries to rebuild, what security in the Gulf looks like and who will provide it. The G7 doesn’t have to solve all aspects of this large task. But it must support the emer- gence of a new regional order that has the buy-in of the countries in the region and can form the basis of an economic reconstruction that the G7 could partici- pate in and benefit from.
// VALI NASR Vali Nasr is the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and a non-resident senior adviser in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and Intelligence Studies. He served as the eighth dean of SAIS between 2012 and 2019 and as senior adviser to US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Ambassador Richard Holbrooke between 2009 and 2011. His most recent book is Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History .
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This interview was recorded on 21 April 2026.
25 globalgovernancemedia.org
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