// SECURITY: MIDDLE EAST, IRAN AND THE GULF
INTERVIEW
Iran’s use of asymmetric tools – from disrupting maritime chokepoints to leveraging regional alliances – has amplified the global impact of the conflict. A sustainable G7 response will require coordinated diplomatic solutions Rethinking an Iran strategy and the challenge for global stability
How has the Iranian war affected regional stability, geopolitics and the interests of G7 members? This war was not a quick, easy or decisive conflict that remained limited to Iran. It quickly turned into a regional conflagra- tion with global implications. There was always an anticipated risk that Iran might retaliate against its neighbours, where US bases are located, or Israel, but the fero- city and the scale and scope of the actual Iranian attacks were unforeseen. Another surprise was that Iran went right for its doomsday weapon – to close the Strait of Hormuz. Every war game anticipated that Iran might deploy that tool, but as a last resort, not in its open- ing salvo. So this war demonstrates how a weak country, from a conventional military perspective, can use asymmetric warfare and alliances with US adversaries Russia and China to outgun a stronger power by externalising the pain of the conflict to the rest of the world. How have G7 members responded to the conflict and its impacts? The G7 has tried to walk a tightrope by condemning Iranian actions, recog- nising Israel’s right to self-defence and advocating deescalation. But that posi- tion undermines the international norms that have kept conflicts within a certain framework more than it helps deescalate tensions. The very fact that self-defence is recognised for Israel and Ukraine but not Iran – which was the subject of a war of aggression, against the United Nations Charter – demonstrates that the G7 is not trying to uphold international norms. Double standards undermine the G7’s credibility. This conflict has created new fissures within the G7. The US expected its allies to participate in ensuring freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. But its G7 allies were not consulted prior to this conflict, which caused the Strait’s closure. Some G7 members have tried to pursue parallel military solutions to a problem that has only a political and diplomatic solution. No maritime coalition could preserve safety and security in open seas in a world where one drone hitting one vessel can stop the traffic in critical waterways. These problems require diplomatic tools. G7 members with good relations with both sides could have done more in finding middle ground solutions.
Ali Vaez, director, Iran Project, International Crisis Group
26 // G7 FRANCE: THE ÉVIAN SUMMIT 2026
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