What are the prospects for bringing an enduring end to the conflict? Several problems between Iran and the US need to be resolved for a stable situation to emerge. But that would be insuffi- cient because of the animosity between Iran and Israel, and the deep fissures now between the two sides of the Persian Gulf. A more comprehensive solution must be found. Iran might agree to suspend its enrich- ment programme for a period, but it is hard to imagine it would forego its right to nuclear fuel cycle technology as a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran has paid several trillion dollars in economic damages through years of sanctions and in the added damages inflicted upon it in less than a year. It is unlikely to capitulate on this question. On the Strait of Hormuz, Iran insists that its geography grants it an advan- tage in controlling the traffic, and it will continue to do so after the war ends, for revenue for reconstruction. The US and regional allies will find this hard to stomach. In both these challenges, there is a solution by pursuing a mutually benefi- cial regional approach. If Iran agrees to suspend its enrichment until there is a regional consortium to provide access to all Gulf states to enrichment or nuclear fuel production, that’s a win-win-win for everyone: the Gulf states’ involvement would ensure the nuclear fuel would not be easily convertible into a weapons pro- gramme, and both sides of the Gulf would be bound in a cooperative project towards a new regional security arrangement. The same could be applied to the Strait. For example, a consortium of Iran and Iraq on one side and the Gulf states on the other, to manage the traffic, is mutually beneficial: both sides could charge tran- sit fees to contribute to a regional fund for recovery from this war in lieu of repara- tions. So there has to be a mechanism for generating resources without undermin- ing international law. This consortium could be endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution so it supersedes inter- national conventions for freedom of navigation. It also has to be time bound, so it doesn’t set a precedent for other critical international waterways. Then it’s also possible to have a non- aggression understanding between Iran and the US that would implicitly apply to their regional allies, which could include Israel. Iran would be reintegrated into
the immediate near abroad and have a path to recovery and reconstruc- tion. It also removes the threat that Iran imposes on Israel. The US could ensure the safety and security of inter- national waterways and its allies in the region. This is the kind of solution the G7 should support. What should the G7 leaders do? At the Évian Summit G7 leaders could express support for a mutually bene- ficial diplomatic solution. They could also convey support and provide tech- nical assistance for implementing such solutions. As no inclusive, coopera- tive infrastructure covers both sides of the Gulf, the G7 and its members can thereby assist countries in the region. The G7 should not support only one side of this conflict. It must support a mutually beneficial solution that sets a new stage for multilateral, win-win diplomacy, which is now becoming the exception. The sooner that trend is reversed, the more it will benefit inter- national peace and security. The G7 can play a very important role here.
// ALI VAEZ Ali Vaez is director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. He previously served as a senior political affairs officer at the United Nations Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and was the Iran Project Director at the Federa- tion of American Scientists. He is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service and a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced Inter- national Studies. He is a co-author of How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare.
X-TWITTER @AliVaez www.crisisgroup.org
This interview was recorded on 20 April 2026.
27 globalgovernancemedia.org
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