Enrollment Projections The following enrollment projections are based on the calculation of school district enrollment projections. School district enrollment projections on performed on an individual school district using a combination of a Grade Progression model and a modified Enrollment Rate model. The Grade Progression Model is used to project enrollments for Grades 2-12. Using five years of actual enrollment data, a progression rate for each year is calculated by using a year's actual enrollment for a grade and dividing it by the previous year's actual enrollment for the next lowest grade. For example, if the Year 2 Grade 5 enrollment was 100 students and the Year 1 Grade 4 Enrollment was 102, then the Year 2 Grade 5 Progression Rate is 100/102 = 0.9804. Through a series of rules, the four calculated progression rates are combined to build a progression rate for the model. The modified Enrollment Rate model used birth data supplied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health and property market rate values by school district supplied by the Tax Equalization Division (TED) of the Department of Community and Economic Development. The data supplied from TED is combined with the data supplied by the Department of Health to determine the number of births by School District. The TED data is used to determine the distribution of households by school district for any municipalities which are split by multiple school districts. These births are used to predict the enrollment rate of Kindergarten and Grade 1 by utilizing a five year and six-year lag respectively.
Kdg.
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
Grade 9
Grade 10
Grade 11
Grade 12
Actual
2017 - 2018
211
217
194
242
250
266
248
236
238
230
217
241
223
Actual
2018 - 2019
211
220
222
203
246
256
266
257
243
245
225
215
237
Actual
2019 - 2020
211
219
215
229
202
250
255
259
259
250
243
226
209
Actual
2020 - 2021
186
211
216
219
227
192
254
257
254
262
254
247
220
Actual
2021 - 2022
188
201
215
220
222
226
202
260
266
268
266
246
247
Projection
2022 - 2023
182
232
201
219
221
221
230
204
263
274
268
265
242
Projection
2023 - 2024
173
217
232
205
220
220
225
232
207
271
274
267
260
Projection
2024 - 2025
179
205
217
236
206
219
224
227
235
213
271
273
262
Projection
2025 - 2026
165
213
205
221
237
205
223
226
230
242
213
270
268
Projection
2026 - 2027
162
197
213
209
222
236
208
225
229
237
242
212
265
Projection
2027 - 2028
159
192
197
217
210
221
240
210
228
236
237
241
208
Projection
2028 - 2029
156
189
192
201
218
209
225
242
213
235
236
236
237
Projection
2029 - 2030
153
185
189
196
202
217
212
227
245
220
235
235
232
Projection
2030 - 2031
150
182
185
192
197
201
220
214
230
253
220
234
231
Projection
2031 - 2032
148
179
182
188
193
196
204
222
217
237
253
219
230
10
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