J00J00 – Maryland Transportation Authority
collapse of the bridge resulted in the death of six construction workers and over 50,000 tons of bridge wreckage falling into the Patapsco River, blocking access to the Port of Baltimore for several months. Full access to the shipping channel was restored on June 12, 2024.
Impacts on MDTA Revenues
The Francis Scott Key Bridge carried a portion of I-695 (the Baltimore Beltway) over the Patapsco River, and along with the Baltimore Harbor Tunnel (I-895) and the Fort McHenry Tunnel (I-95), are collectively referred to as the Baltimore Harbor crossings. In fiscal 2023, the last full year prior to the bridge collapse, a total of 12.5 million toll transactions occurred at the Francis Scott Key Bridge, including 11.1 million passenger cars and 1.4 million commercial vehicles. Since the collapse of the bridge, traffic traveling through the Baltimore region has been diverted to either the Baltimore Harbor Tunnel or the Fort McHenry Tunnel or other routes including passing around Baltimore on the western portion of I-695 or local roads through the city. While many vehicles have been able to divert to the Baltimore Harbor Tunnel or the Fort McHenry Tunnel, certain commercial vehicles are prohibited from using the tunnels due to size and hazardous waste transport restrictions. Additionally, increased traffic congestion at the Baltimore Harbor Tunnel and the Fort McHenry Tunnel have led to some MDTA customers choosing to use non-MDTA routes instead or forgoing or reducing trips entirely. MDTA engages with an outside consultant to prepare annual 10-year traffic and revenue estimate reports for toll facilities it operates based on historic traffic and revenue trends and current relevant socioeconomic conditions. The most recent traffic and revenue forecast update was prepared by CDM Smith in October 2024. This report estimates total lost revenue throughout the 10-year forecast period by comparing the current forecast with a hypothetical 10-year forecast scenario in which the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse did not occur. The results of this forecast are shown in Exhibit 14 . In total, CDM Smith estimated that the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse will result in $131.8 million in lost net toll revenues between fiscal 2024 and 2029, when the new bridge is projected to reopen, with annual revenue losses of approximately $28 million projected from fiscal 2025 through 2028. Approximately $9.2 million in revenue loss occurred during the remainder of fiscal 2024 following the collapse, and $9.9 million in revenue loss is projected in fiscal 2029, representing the portion of the year prior to the estimated opening of the new bridge. The forecast assumes that the total amount of toll revenues that would have been collected at the Francis Scott Key Bridge during this time period is $265.8 million. However, due to traffic diversions and future estimated traffic increases due to other growth factors, revenues are expected to increase by $35 million at the Baltimore Harbor Tunnel and $99 million at the Fort McHenry Tunnel during the forecast period to offset a portion of this revenue loss.
Analysis of the FY 2026 Maryland Executive Budget, 2025 23
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