Maryland Transportation Authority; Toll Roads Bridges
DSC. Conservative assumptions employed in the forecast include full funding of the authority's capital plan (the authority typically spends only a portion of its capital plan, 75%-80% historically, and not the entire plan each year), limited rate increases, and conservative expense growth assumptions. Our analysis assumes that MDTA will maintain DSC at least near 2x, as per its board-approved DSC policy. Large all-in CIP not expected to be fully executed We assess MDTA's debt and liabilities capacity as very strong. As the authority adds debt in funding its CIP, we expect that its debt-to-EBIDA metrics will likely remain in a range of 5x-10x. MDTA's CIP for the six-year period from 2025-2030 outlines $5.1 billion in expenditures. The funding plan calls for $2.0 billion in new debt, to be issued in multiple series every year beginning in fiscal 2026. MDTA's approach to capital planning involves the inclusion of additional projects each year, above and beyond what MDTA will likely spend. Over the last six years, MDTA spent, on average, 80% of its annual capital program. However, MDTA's forecast assumes full spending of the current capital plan. Therefore, we believe the forecast debt metrics are likely somewhat conservative. MDTA's statutory debt ceiling for toll revenue-backed debt is now $4.0 billion as of fiscal 2025, an increase from $3.0 billion previously. We expect that MDTA will continue to remain in compliance with its statutory debt limits. Strong liquidity and financial flexibility, supported by board policy We assess MDTA's liquidity and financial flexibility as strong. Over the last several years, MDTA has accumulated strong cash balances, with approximately $800 million in unrestricted cash and investments as of fiscal year-end 2024, which represented 727.8 days' cash on hand. Through the forecast period, MDTA projects maintaining available liquidity in excess of the level required as per internal policy ($400 million). Based on the forecast, we expect MDTA will maintain available liquidity sufficient to equate, on average, to between 400 and 600 days' operating expenses. We expect liquidity-to-debt will fall to 7.5%-20% as the authority adds debt beginning in fiscal 2026.
Table 1
Maryland Transportation Authority--Ratings score snapshot
Enterprise risk profile
2
Economic fundamentals
1
Industry risk
2
Market position
2
Management and governance
1
Financial risk profile
3
Financial performance
3
Debt and liabilities
2
Liquidity and financial flexibility
3
Table 2
Maryland Transportation Authority, Maryland--Financial and operating data
--Fiscal year ended June 30--
Projected 2027
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Financial performance
Total operating revenue ($000s)
813,350
912,828
875,837
856,064
741,538
747,285
APRIL 25, 2025 6
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