Infrastructure and Project Finance
Maryland Trans. Auth. - Trans. Facilities Update to credit analysis Summary Maryland Transportation Authority’s (MDTA, Aa2 negative) credit profile reflects the essentiality of the authority's road network, the fundamental strength of the service area and its history of strong financial and operational management and performance. As expected, MDTA's performance was slightly impacted by the Key Bridge collapse in March 2024. In the fiscal year to date performance through March 2025, traffic and toll revenue have declined by 2.7% and 3.3%. In fiscal 2023, Key Bridge's toll revenue represented 7% of total toll revenue, so this 3% decline is in line with our expectations that part of the traffic would be diverted to the two tunnels owned and operated by MDTA in the service area (Fort McHenry and Baltimore Harbor tunnels). MDTA's credit profile also incorporates the authority's financial policies and history of conservative budgeting coupled with a track record of exceeding its forecasts. This strong financial policy with a proven track record is one of the main strengths of this credit that somewhat mitigates the projected metrics being lower than peers. Taken together, these factors support the authority's board-approved $5.1 billion capital expenditure program spanning fiscal 2025 through fiscal 2030, which includes the $1.7 billion Key Bridge replacement project. In December 2024, the federal government confirmed that it would fund 100% of the costs related to the Key Bridge replacement project, which is positive for the credit. However, the continued declining liquidity coupled with the increasing leverage and debt service requirements from the implementation of the remaining projects of the capital expenditure program, could place pressure on the authority's current credit profile should toll revenues not keep pace with growing debt service requirements through either traffic growth or toll rate increases. The credit profile incorporates our expectation of the authority’s willingness to maintain strong financial metrics by increasing toll rates or making other adjustments to preserve its financial position. Credit strengths » Strong financial profile supported by authority's financial policies and proven track record of conservative budgeting practices » Authority’s willingness to maintain strong financial metrics by increasing toll rates or making other adjustments to preserve its financial position. » Long history of strong demand for the authority's multiple, essential and established transportation facilities in a well-developed, affluent and slowly growing service area.
CREDIT OPINION 22 May 2025
Contacts Cintia Nazima
+1.212.553.1631
VP – Senior Analyst cintia.nazima@moodys.com Kayla Attis
+1.212.553.2876
Sr Ratings Associate kayla.attis@moodys.com Kurt Krummenacker
+1.212.553.7207
Associate Managing Director kurt.krummenacker@moodys.com
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