DBDH publishes Hot Cool, but the main business is helping cities or regions in their green transition. We will help you find specific answers for a sustainable district heating solution or integrate green technology into an existing district heating system in your region – for free! Any city, or utility in the world, can call DBDH and find help for a green district heating solution suitable for their city. A similar system is often operating in Denmark, being the most advanced district heating country globally. DBDH then organizes visits to Danish reference utilities or expert delegations from Denmark to your city. For real or virtually in webinars or web meetings. DBDH is a non-profit organization - so guidance by DBDH is free of charge. Just call us. We'd love to help you district energize your city!
NO. 7 / 2023
INTERNATIONAL MAGAZINE ON DISTRICT HEATING AND COOLING
SUCCESSES IN DISTRICT HEATING DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION 0% 100% KNOWLEDGE SHARING
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Contents
THIS EDITION'S FOCUS THEMES
SUCCESSES IN DISTRICT HEATING
MEET THE SCANDI DIVAS! By Kamma Eilschou Holm THE IMPORTANCE OF KNOWLEDGE SHARING By Jan Eric Thorsen and Oddgeir Gudmundsson 5 4
TECHNOLOGY AND SUSTAINABILITY
By Steen Schelle Jensen 8
DIGITALISING DISTRICT HEATING REQUIRES A PARADIGM SHIFT
AI AND DIGITALISATION
12
DOES THE FUTURE OF DISTRICT HEATING LIE WITH SOLAR COLLECTORS, PHOTOVOLTAICS, OR WIND TURBINES? By Anders N. Andersen and Poul Alberg Østergaard
DBDH Stæhr Johansens Vej 38 DK-2000 Frederiksberg Phone +45 8893 9150
Editor-in-Chief: Lars Gullev, VEKS
Total circulation: 5.000 copies in 74 countries 10 times per year
Grafisk layout Kåre Roager, kaare@68design.dk
Coordinating Editor: Linda Bertelsen, DBDH lb@dbdh.dk
info@dbdh.dk www.dbdh.dk
ISSN 0904 9681
A network for women in the district heating sector – why and how can it benefit the entire industry? MEET THE SCANDI DIVAS!
By Kamma Eilschou Holm, Founder of KH RELATION
the many competent women who are and will be an asset to Denmark’s district heating sector and, therefore, to the rest of the world. The significant advantage of District Heating Divas - Scandi- navian is that it is a network with members from various or- ganizations. We have members who are employed in district heating companies, industrial enterprises, consulting firms, as well as in municipalities and authorities. This means that knowledge exchange can occur across organizations, and sec- ondly, one can gain inspiration and insight into tasks and work culture across different organizations. Furthermore, we have many international companies that receive employees from all over the world. With our network, they have the opportunity to establish contacts in Scandina- via, which can facilitate their start in both the sector and the countries. As mentioned in the introduction, the inspiration comes from the UK sister network that has existed for four years. Here, Georgina Orso from Guru Systems puts into words why she sees District Heating Divas as a definite advantage: “The District Heating Divas is a space for women from all sorts of organizations in our industry to come together, support each other, share ideas, and inspire others. Whether through the mentoring scheme, regional meetups, or the annual con- ference, the District Heating Divas is a place to ask questions and make connections - and can be a great starting point for conversations about careers, future partnerships, or inno- vative ways of delivering low carbon heat. All of the women in the Guru Systems team are involved in some way with the group, from new starters to senior leaders - because by work- ing together, we can go further.”
Our British colleagues have a long tradition of creating net- works and clubs. Nevertheless, it surprised me when, in the fall of 2022, through DBDH, I was connected with Rachael Mills from SE2 to hear how she and several colleagues from the UK district heating sector managed to create a network for wom- en with more than 400 members. The network is called District Heating Divas. With a district heating sector in Denmark that is considerably larger than the British one, it motivated me to create a similar network in Scandinavia with Denmark as the anchor. Thus, “District Heating Divas – Scandinavian” came into being. Currently, we have 250 members, have held one physical event in Copenhagen, and hosted two webinars. We are planning the next physical event in Aarhus on geothermal energy before the end of the year and have two webinars in the pipeline for this autumn. In other words, we are moving forward at full speed. But why - the intention is to make the district heating sector an attractive industry for women to seek, stay in, and contribute to its development. We believe ideas and decisions are better when they grow and are made in diverse forums. The district heating sector is one of the crucial tools in the green transition for Europe. We must continue to develop technology, systems, and organization sustainably. We stand on the shoulders of many wise individuals who have brought the district heating sector to where it is today. But we need to move forward, and we need to solve challenges larger than ever before. That’s why we call on all forces because the greater the chances are that we find good solutions. Being able to see oneself in others, to have role models, and to feel comfortable enough to ask questions and have doubts can be difficult when you are a significant minority. Therefore, the network intends to shed light on the women already in our sector so they can serve as sounding boards and role models for others. At the same time, we aim to create a forum where neither new nor experienced women in the sector need to feel outnumbered. Thus, we hope to help retain and attract
Read more about the network here www.districtheatingdivas.com/scandi-divas
THE IMPORTANCE OF KNOWLEDGE SHARING
In times of fundamental transitions, like the transition of the energy sector, it becomes imperative to facilitate effective knowledge sharing to boost the general understanding of the sector and raise public awareness.
By Jan Eric Thorsen and Oddgeir Gudmundsson, Directors, Climate Solutions, Danfoss A/S, Nordborg, Denmark
Sector coupling – generating and sharing knowledge is key
Energy system experts actively share information in the format of white papers and research papers and participate in various communication forums and conferences. While these activi- ties are well suited to address specific audience groups, there is also a need to provide easy-to-grasp material, with as low entry barriers as possible, to communicate the benefits and importance of our sector to the politicians and the general public. In this aspect, we recognize that written documents can be considered a significant barrier in today’s fast-paced world, and a more relaxed and visualized approach may be better suited. With that perspective in mind, we started exploring the possibility of conveying our thoughts and insights on complex matters in a simple video-based format of shorter duration. As a first step in this journey, we have created a video series focusing on one of the trending topicsin our sector: energy system integration via sector coupling.
The terms smart energy systems, sector coupling, or sector integration are widely applied to scope the future green energy system. How it is perceived is often linked to the area of focus for the individual, where the terms are not always anchored in the bigger perspective, risking good intentions falling short of the true potential of the considered system. This calls for networking and cooperation of experts across sectors and professions to generate helpful insights for developing a shared vision and understanding of the overall energy system. It is about painting the big picture with adequate details for revealing the “why” and “how.” Over the years, we have had the privilege and pleasure of be-ing part of such cooperations through numerous research pro-jects and platforms, where the future energy system has been discussed, analyzed, and demonstrated. This has provided great insights and understanding we would like to convey further. Brian Vad Mathiesen, Professor Aalborg University: “The first principle of energy ef- ficiency is pivotal for handling the energy and climate crises. Through our research in Smart Energy Systems, e.g., in Heat Road map Europe, we can see that energy sys- tem design and the connection between sectors creates additional synergies and efficiency to the end
Eloi Piel, Director Market Intelligence : “We must move beyond the rhetoric that the heat sector is complex and local. There is obviously complexitywith the many actors involved and the diversity of potential solutions. And it is local, as operators valorize local streams of renewable and waste heat. This being said the contribution of
sustainable and competitive district heat to the broader transformation of the energy system must be further explained to citizens and policy-makers on the basis of expert knowledge.”
local commitment and collaboration, and this unique community is the foundation for our success in creating a sustainable Sønderborg area in development and growth.” Sector coupling videocasts Based on the knowledge gained from long-term cooperation with experts in the energy sector, we have made a series of videocasts focusing on sector coupling, intending to share the insights and knowledge obtained over the years. The first videocast intends to provide a general overview of why sector coupling is important and its key elements. This overview provides the general framework for the subsequent video- casts, which focuses on successful examples of district heating systems benefitting from the principles of sector coupling.
demand savings. Based on our research, the heating sector plays a major role in the green transition, and sharing and explaining the message is key.” Due to the complexity of modern energy systems, it is beneficial to approach the topic with different zoom levels, starting with a helicopter view to establish a shared vision and subse-quently go into details of the building blocks of the energy system. This is particularly important when it comes to the in-troduction of fluctuating renewables and increasingly diversi-fied energy sources.
Anders Dyrelund, District Energy Plan- ning & Infrastructure Ramboll: “The Danish energy planning based on economic assessment for the consumers and the society, including environmental impact costs of CO2, has paved the way for many important sector couplings. Most impor- tant is the coupling between buildings and
district energy, as cities are growing, and district energy pro- vides numerous sector couplings for cost-effective, resilient, low-carbon energy supply in cities. In particular, the couplings between district energy and electricity. If power-only genera- tion is on the margin, district heating can utilize the surplus heat, thus cutting down fuel consumption for heating to less than 40% for society. In case of hydro, wind, or solar PV is on the margin and curtailed, district energy can utilize the surplus electricity which else would be wasted and even more offer balancing services to the grid. It is a cost-effective and simple “virtual battery.” Finally, district heating opens for environmentally friendly utilization of waste and surplus biofuels and further on for carbon capture and utilization.” Due to the complexities and number of actors involved in the energy system, initiatives like ProjectZero in Sønderborg can play a central role in boosting the knowledge level in their local communities and support the citizens and local companies to identify and implement energy-saving improvements, as well as energy saving behaviors.
Copenhagen district heating Copenhagen has a long and successful history of district heating, with the first scheme dating back to 1903. Over the years, more and more systems were built in Copenhagen and even-tually interconnected to utilize a wide range of energy sources effectively. Today, 98% of all buildings, approximately 500,000 households, in Copenhagen are heated by the district heat-ing system. The system is an excellent example of how large district heating systems can support and benefit from sector coupling. In the Copenhagen videocast, we present the main aspects of the system and explain how the district heating sys-tem is the key to ensuring a clean, affordable, and resilient heat supply to the city.
Anne Brenderup, Senior Project Manager Project Zero: “In Sønderborg, we have launched the ProjectZero mission back in 2007, with the aim to be CO2 neutral by 2029. Today, we are more than halfway on our journey. We cannot save the world, but we can show others that the solutions to keep global warming at a tolerable level for
Lars Gullev, Senior Consultant VEKS: “Establishing the Greater Copenhagen district heating system has been possible due to a clear political objective from 20 municipalities in the 1980s, intending to utilize excess heat from fossil-based CHP plants and waste incineration. Today and in the future, the aim is to base the heat pro-
future generations are already here.
duction on sustainable biomass, heat from waste energy plants, geothermal energy, large seawater-based heat pumps, surplus heat from Carbon Capture and PtX, data centers, and industry. The Copenhagen system is green and flexible; therefore, we are prepared for the future. And the future is not far away.”
In Sønderborg, we have great companies, research, and educa- tional institutions with energy efficiency and green technology knowledge. Right from the start, ProjectZero is built on strong
point is to establish a basic understanding of sector coupling and the role of the different sectors, particularly the inter- connecting ability of the district energy system. Due to the high complexity level, it can be challenging to visualize, and that is why showcasing successful examples of sector-coupled and smart energy systems is key to build up general knowl- edge and inspiring cities on their journey toward sustainability. The future aspiration The sector coupling videocasts is the first series to share knowledge and insights. The series provides a holistic overview of the energy system and the role of district energy in particular. It provides the foundation for future knowledge sharing, focusing on the underlying aspects and technologies applied. In that respect, new ideas are lined up for additional series, and we look forward to sharing them with you.
Sønderborg district heating In contrast to the Copenhagen video, the Sønderborg video- cast aims to show how a small city, with 12,500 households, can successf ully apply the same sector coupling principles to ensure affordable and decarbonized heat supply to its citizens. The Sønderborg District heating company supports this effort and, for example, introduced geothermal energy supplemented with sustainable biomass and electrical boilers. Now, the quest continues with extending the district heating infrastructure to other towns in the municipality and taking advantage of waste heat sources and local renewables in the area to increase the energy supply security and strengthen the local economy. In the Sønderborg videocast, we introduce the system design and the many sector coupling opportunities commonly available in smaller communities.
Charlotte Kjar, Marketing Communica- tions Manager Danfoss: “At Danfoss, we support and drive the green agenda on decarbonizing heating and cooling. We aim to engage our audience on technologies and know-how enabling the green transition. As the video format is easily accessible and more memorable than, e.g., written reports,
we are using the format to a larger extent in relation to high-level thought leader topics. This gets the message across as a short, yet concise narrative will engage with our audience in a way that text can’t achieve.”
Tue Gejl Christensen, Project and Develop- ment Director, Sønderborg Utility: “District heating can do much more than heating the buildings. It’s an integral part of lowering the energy footprint by utilizing waste heat, e.g., from industry, and stabilizing the electrical grid with the capability to harvest heat and store it when
In case you have not experienced the three videocasts yet, please check out the links:
Video 1: “Basic of sector coupling and the role district energy systems play”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtZ8Em5T- 1qI&list=PLyk9QQFFEsXW4GS4E3GIsVrk5q4Uv- T30Y&index=1&t=21s&pp=iAQB
there is ample energy production from solar and wind.”
Video 2: “How the Copenhagen District Heating System supports and benefits from sector coupling”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW3eMe- Sp7AM&list=PLyk9QQFFEsXW4GS4E3GIsVrk5q4Uv- T30Y&index=2&t=163s&pp=iAQB Video 3: “How the Sonderborg District Heating System supports and benefits from sector coupling”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtEom- 3W64UM&list=PLyk9QQFFEsXW4GS4E3GIsVrk5q4Uv- T30Y&index=3&t=17s&pp=iAQB
The three videocasts show that while the green transition is a challenging journey, it is possible, and the necessary building blocks and solutions are already available. A critical starting
For further information please contact: Jan Eric Thorsen, jet@Danfoss.com
A recent report from Euroheat & Power underlines the key role of digitalisation in European district heating, which is no longer an optional benefit but a necessary means for utilities to survive. By putting into play the different perspectives and concrete learn- ings of utilities and suppliers across Europe, the report is a testa- ment to the importance of international collaboration from both sides of the table – and the shared responsibility of realising the ongoing paradigm shift in district heating. DIGITALISING DISTRICT HEATING REQUIRES A PARADIGM SHIFT, BUT YOUR NEXT STEP IS THE MOST IMPORTANT
By Steen Schelle Jensen, Head of Business Development – Heat/Cooling Solutions, Kamstrup
In May of this year, DHC+ Platform – the technology branch of Euroheat & Power – published their report ‘Digitalisation in District Heating and Cooling Systems,’ highlighting the impor- tant role of digitalisation in modern district heating. This report is especially relevant because it does this based on the two- fold recognition that digitalising district heating is widely recognized as a key part of the solution to the challenges facing today’s utilities – but that the status quo varies signifi- cantly from country to country. This taps into the underlying paradox of how in some Euro- pean markets, utilities have genuinely seized the opportunity to use digitalisation as the lever to optimise their entire value chain and gain a stronger position in an increasingly volatile energy market. Meanwhile, in other markets, most utilities have just begun their digitalisation journey – and in others still, digitalisation remains somewhat of a foreign concept because utilities don’t feel they have the necessary resources and com- petencies, or they are not yet fully convinced that new is better. The report is based on a survey sent out to European utilities and suppliers to uncover how the industry is coping with the challenge of digital innovation. It, therefore, aims to shed a holistic light on the state of digitalisation in district heating
across Europe – addressing both opportunities and obstacles – and secondly, to sum up, the options available to inspire util- ities that either want to speed up their journey or have yet to get started. The following reflects on three central findings.
From optional to mandatory
One of the key takeaways from the report is that digitalisation of district heating utilities can no longer be considered an optional benefit. In the digitalisation debate, we often – and rightfully – discuss its potential regarding our shared energy system, ambitious climate targets, and the decarbonisation challenges of the energy sector. However, the fact is that the benefits digitalisation brings to the individual utility are even more substantial. Today, with increasing legislative demands, complexity, and competition, utilities simply cannot afford not to digitalise their operations. The report outlines how the application of technologies available today can prove effective – and in many cases even required – to ensure heat supply’s long-term sus- tainability and reliability on the transition to 4th generation district heating (4GDH).
roll-out, etc., represent somewhat of a paradigm shift in dis- trict heating. Previously, utility professionals would supply heat based mainly on assumptions, experience, and maybe a few critical metering points to increase the probability of it match- ing the need among consumers but not having the overview or all-important feedback loop to reveal if those assumptions were correct. Today, the opportunities available through smart meters and digitalisation tools focused on the consumer side give utilities a much more precise picture of the need they have to meet and how to do it most efficiently – again ensuring the best possible basis for optimising their entire value chain. Digi talisation even holds the potential to bring in the connected buildings as a truly active and integrated part of the system offering flexibility in the heat demand. Regarding demand-side data, it is worth considering the vary- ing progress of rolling out remotely-read smart meters – even though the EU’s Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) requiring European district heating utilities to provide customers with monthly information about their consumption became effec- tive as of October 2020. There is an explicit acknowledgement of the necessary action, but while some countries are more or less done, others are just starting to pick up speed.
Digital solutions enable district heating professionals to proac- tively ensure an always-optimised district heating system. This allows them to optimise heat production, reduce tempera tures, and lower heat loss while improving key areas such as asset management and customer service based on data-driven information. It is the foundation of integrating waste heat and renewables to become a greener, more resilient, and more attractive option – all contributing to understanding digitali sation as a sound and future-proof investment.
The demand side is underserved
The report also concludes that while there is no shortage of products, solutions, and services already available, by far, most of them are related to the production side of a district heating utility’s value chain. This includes, e.g., production optimisation, simulation, or planning systems. On the other hand, the demand side remains significantly neglected and underserved even though what happens inside the connected buildings in the network has a direct and massive impact on its perfor- mance.
In this way, the ongoing digitalisation efforts, smart meter
Here, another key conclusion from the report is that even though smart meter data is personal data and therefore cov- ered by the GDPR, it is possible for data privacy and energy-effi- cient district heating to co-exist – and the Danish interpretation of Article 6 proves it. In other words, the necessary investment in smart meters also represents a unique opportunity to look beyond the EED demands to ensure that you get the founda- tion in place to enable the utilisation of smart meter data for optimisation and to support further digitalisation in the future.
The steps are more important than the goal
When it comes to digitalisation in European district energy utilities, it is more about the journey than the destination. It can seem overwhelming for a utility professional in a less mature market to fully digitalise the operations and the way of work. But as the report concludes, the key thing is to get started – because no matter where you are on your journey, the next step will always be the most important. This makes it essential for less experienced utilities to have real- life case stories and experiences from their peers to lean on – which is why the second half of the report is dedicated to digitalisation in practice. Here, utility professionals from coun- tries including Denmark, Italy, and France share their stories, perspectives, and the concrete lessons they have learned. These cases underline what is perhaps the most important takeaway of all: that getting started on benefitting from dig- italisation does not necessitate a fully digitalised value chain from day one. But even with a minimum amount of data, a smart system can deliver insights that can help predict the future or improve the impact of the utility’s efforts and invest- ments – and you can build from there. When it comes to digi- talising district heating, it is less about how far you have come and more about whether you are moving in the right direction. International collaboration at its best The new report is written by an international DHC+ working group, where authors and contributors come from different countries, positions, and companies – including Kamstrup. To some extent, international collaboration may be considered a given in just about any industry today. Nevertheless, there is something unique about the closeness and almost family-like mindset in European district heating – especially considering the fact that while it holds enormous potential, it remains a relatively small, albeit soon fast-growing, industry. As a result, rather than focusing only on mature markets, best-case scenarios, and the industry players and utilities that have come the furthest, this new report is written with an international and more nuanced perspective of the current situation. As the cases in the report show, developments in the district heating and cooling industry are no longer limited to more mature markets such as Denmark. This not only calls for more international collaboration to explore all corners towards digitalising district heating. Sharing insights and perspectives with other industry players is a unique opportunity to pick up even more speed by contribu ting to the conversation and breaking down barriers.
"As part of the Future Green Heating project, DIN Forsyning in Esbjerg, Denmark, has achieved a significantly lower return tem- perature in the utility’s network by digitalising end-user engage- ment on faulty heat installations" - Case from the report on DIN Forsyning and the Digital Low-temperature Assistant
From report to action As a leading supplier of smart metering and digital solutions and services for the district energy industry – particularly the underserved demand side – Kamstrup has an obligation to contribute to its continued development and prevalence. Col- lecting and hosting data from over 1.3 million heat meters across 400+ district heating operators highlights the enormous potential of converting all this data into actionable insights. We take that responsibility seriously and prioritize participat- ing in some of the many great and ambitious initiatives and research projects in the industry. The recent DHC+ report is just one example. Another is the IEA DHC TS4 project, which will publish its ‘Guidebook for the Digitalization of District Heating’ later this year. This work is rooted in a research perspective. It provides yet another important angle on digitalisation in the DH industry, giving inspiration and guidance to understand the value of digitalisation and new innovative solutions and services. At the end of the day, actual progress still requires action from the utility professionals across Europe, who are now wondering what their next step should be. In this respect, one of the things that make the report from DHC+ so relevant is that a whole section of the report is dedicated to buildings and end-user strategies and the untapped potential they hold – which is now being unlocked with the roll-out of smart meters. This under- lines how digitalisation works as the glue that ties together your entire value chain – and every single step you take. Therefore, I only urge you to read the reports – available for free download at www.euroheat.org – explore the cases and reach out to the included utilities, suppliers, or contributors. Ultimately, this is how we can put into play our shared expe- riences, knowledge, and competencies – for the good of both the individual utility and the energy sector.
Key messages from the report » District heating and cooling is a key solution to decar- bonisation, but the DHC system is becoming increas- ingly complex. » Digital solutions can leverage data from the field and other sources to achieve effective design and efficient operations. » Maximum performance requires considering the val- ue chain as a whole – including the underserved de- mand side. » Regardless of their starting point, digitalisation holds excellent potential for European DHC utilities, as prov- en by early adopters. Source: Digitalisation in district heating and cooling systems – A tangible perspective to upgrade performance, Euroheat & Power / DHC+, May 2023
For further information please contact: Steen Schelle Jensen, ssj@kamstrup.com
"By rolling out 46,000 smart meters, Aalborg receives hourly data from all its customers. It is experiencing multiple operation- al benefits ranging from reduced temperatures and heat to better customer service and a new in- centive-based tariff model." - Case from the report on Aalborg Forsyning and remote-read smart meters
DOES THE FUTURE OF DISTRICT HEATING LIE WITH SOLAR COLLECTORS, PHOTOVOLTAICS, OR WIND TURBINES?
By corresponding author Anders N. Andersen, PhD, Ext. Ass. Professor at Aalborg University, R&D projects responsible at EMD International and Poul Alberg Østergaard, Professor at Aalborg University
There was little doubt ten years ago that the future for district heating in Denmark was to invest in large solar collectors producing hot water. However, the last years have shown changes that cast doubt on this – amongst others, the war in Europe, wildly fluctuating natural gas and electricity prices, and an overwhelming decrease in the costs of, e.g., photovoltaics (PV). Therefore, the Danish District Heating Association (DDHA) has raised the question of whether solar collectors, photovoltaic, or wind turbines are the future of district heating. We presented one answer to this question at a DDHA meeting in Copenhagen on September 21, 2023. This article gives a short overview of this presentation. We hope this article will make decision-makers of new investments better prepared to ask the right questions for making robust investments in district heating.
Analyses based on Ringkøbing District Heating Our analysis will take a starting point on Ringkøbing District Heating, which lies in Western Denmark. It is, of course, a little ambitious to guide decision-makers based on only one case. However, it is an interesting case, and we will also include some of the viewpoints that came up at and after the meeting in Copenhagen. Ringkøbing DH produces around 110,000 MWh-heat/year. The plant has already invested in 30,000 m2 of solar collector and 3,000 m3 thermal storage connected to this solar collector and a tiny heat pump. However, in the analysis, we have taken the liberty of assuming that Ringkøbing DH could redo these investment decisions based on the present investment costs in Denmark. Thus, we present a counterfactual analysis of what could have been done instead. A model of Ringkøbing DH in energyPRO The analysis of the investments is made in the energy sys- tem analysis tool energyPRO2. A model for 2023 is made, as shown in Figure 1. The reference model maintains three exist- ing heat-producing units - a natural gas engine, a natural gas boiler, and an electric boiler. These units have access to the existing 4,800 m3 thermal storage made when the natural gas engine was installed, allowing the engine to primarily produce electricity and heat in hours with high Day-ahead prices. Fur- thermore, the existing thermal storage in the reference simu- lation allows the electric boiler to consume electricity in hours with low Day-ahead prices.
In the reference calculation with the assumed technical and economic assumptions, the Net Heat Production Cost (NHPC) for producing the 110,000 MWh-heat is calculated as 8.02 M EUR, which gives an average production price of 72.9 EUR/ MWh-heat. The Net calculation means that the value of the sold electricity is subtracted from the operating expenditures. The reference simulation includes no new investments in solar collectors, photovoltaic, wind power, heat pumps, or additional thermal storage. Heat pump capacity is an interesting possible new investment since it is closely related to wind power or PV investments, given heat pumps electricity demand. The price for the used electricity at the heat pump may be low in hours, where the wind turbine covers the heat pump consumption behind own meter, thus avoiding taxes and grid tariffs. Heat pumps may, of course, also simply operate on grid electricity Hourly gas and Day-ahead electricity prices in 2023 Of significant importance for choosing the optimal investment of solar collector, PV, wind turbine, heat pump, and new ther- mal storage is the assumed natural gas and Day-ahead elec- tricity prices in a lifetime of 15-20 years. For these analyses we have assumed that the prices are the same in all years as in 2023, and that natural gas and Day-ahead electricity prices in 2023 are found by multiplying the hourly natural gas and Day-ahead electricity prices in 2022 with the factor 0.4209. This factor is the ratio between the average Day-ahead electricity prices in the first eight months of 2022 and 2023. It shows that the average price was more than halved in these months from
Figure 1: Model of Ringkøbing DH implemented in the energy system analysis tool energyPRO.
2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124792
1 Live data from this plant are shown at www.emd.dk/livedata/energyweb/.
Figure 2: Daily average gas and Day-ahead prices in Denmark in 2022.
2022 to 2023. Figure 2 shows a clear relation between daily average natural gas and Day-ahead prices in 2022. Thus, the same factor is used for natural gas and electricity prices. Investment costs in Denmark today The specific investment costs used in this analysis are shown in the Fact Box. The investment costs are estimated in collab- oration with the manager of Ringkøbing District Heating, who has the general task of tracking potential investment options and costs. The reason for also including cable cost is that it may be rel- evant to invest in a direct line between the plant and, e.g., a wind turbine, to allow the benefits of operating behind the same meter in private wire operation.
the upper graph is shown the Day-ahead electricity prices. The following two graphs show the heat and electricity production and consumption. At the bottom are shown the contents of the existing thermal storage. Notice that the electric boilers are operated in the first three days due to low prices in the Day-ahead market. However, the prices are higher on Sunday, June 28, yet the electrical boilers are still operating up to the PV production level during these hours. This is because the PV is operated behind own meter, thus providing cheap electricity to the electrical boilers.
In the last three days, there have been hours with high Day- ahead electricity prices; thus, the natural gas engine is operated.
Yearly benefit of an investment of 8.9 MEUR in Ringkøbing
Investment costs in Denmark of today Solar collector 0,3 MEUR/1000 m2 Heat pump 0,9 MEUR/MW-heat Wind turbine 1,3 MEUR/MW-el Photo voltaic 0,7 MEUR/MW-el Thermal Storage 0,3 MEUR/1000 m3 Cable 0,2 MEUR/km
In the previous section, we demonstrated some system effects of devoting the 8.9 MEUR investment sum to PV. It is, however, a multi-dimensional challenge to choose the right investment among the several possibilities, investments that typically live for at least 15 to 20 years. Table 1 shows the yearly benefits of extreme investments, where all 8.9 MEUR is used on solar collectors, PV, wind tur- bines, or heat pumps (with appropriate investments in addi- tional new thermal storage). The yearly benefit is calculated as the reduced NHPC sub- tracted from the annual annuity of the investment. For exam- ple, no new investment has a yearly NHPC of 8.02 MEUR. When investing exclusively in solar collectors and storage, this NHPC is reduced to 6.46 MEUR, giving a surplus of 1.55 MEUR. The
Optimising an investment of 8.9 MEUR For the analyses, we will optimize the benefit of a total invest- ment of 8.9 M EUR. This corresponds to what the present 30,000 m2 solar collector and 3,000 m3 additional thermal stor- age would cost today.
For example, Figure 3 shows the optimized operation in seven days in May, where the 8.9 MEUR is used exclusively on PV. In
Figure 3: The optimized operation in seven days in May, where all the total investment of 8.9 MEUR is used on PV.
Yearly benefit of an investment of 8.9 mil. EUR in Ringkøbing Yearly benefit
Sold electricity
Bought electricity
[MEUR]
[MWh] 12,963
[MWh] 31,241 28,767 33,570 27,512 25,708
No new investment
Only solar collector and storage
0.96 0.97 0.93 1.09
8,595 7,305
Only heat pump and storage
Only photo voltaic Only wind turbine
19,433 20,347
Table 1: Yearly benefits and effects on sold and bought electricity of four alternative investments in heat and power production technologies.
Further analysis needed The analyses presented here show a slight preference for spending the investment sum on wind power rather than on solar collectors and additional thermal storage. Before actual investment decisions, further investigations must cover sensi- tivity, scenarios, and alternatives. First, results must be analysed for variations in technology costs and energy prices. Secondly, we need to observe the energy transition future we are look- ing into and how that affects choices and prices. How will the phasing out of natural gas engines affect the system in ques- tion – and how will future electricity prices develop when the system transitions? And lastly, only extreme cases were ana- lysed, not mixtures such as wind, heat pump, and storage in a combined solution.
yearly annuity of the investment of 8.9 MEUR amounts to 0.60 MEUR, which offers a benefit of 0.96 MEUR per year.
It is seen from Table 1 that these extreme investments give roughly the same yearly benefit, with a slight preference for Only wind turbines. It is seen that Sold electricity and Bought electricity differ sig- nificantly between these extreme investments. Only solar col- lector and storage reduces the sold electricity compared to the reference, so the solar collector covers most of heat demand in the summer period, reducing the natural gas engine pro- duction. Also, the electricity bought for the electrical boiler is reduced for the same reason. Only heat pump and storage significantly increase bought electricity, and Only PV and Only wind turbine significantly increase the sold electricity.
For further information please contact: Anders N. Andersen, ana@emd.dk
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