PITFALL
SCIENTIFIC BASIS
WARNING SIGNS
SOLUTIONS
Over confidence Bias Overestimating one’s abilities Dunning-Kruger Effect The less you master, the more you believe you’re an expert
• Results rarely surprise you • You ignore team alerts • Success = my merit / Failures = not my fault • Nobody contradicts you
Note predictions, compare to results Conduct a “pre-mortem” Ask for critical feedback Keep a journal of mistakes
1. EXCESS CONFIDENCE
Pitfalls to avoid: Confidence
Impression Management Playing the role of a confident leader.
• You avoid difficult questions • Change subject when probed • You use jargon to mask uncertainty • Constant anxiety despite a calm appearance • You surround yourself with like-minded people • You interpret data in ways that reinforce your existing beliefs • You are quick to dismiss opposing viewpoints • You haven’t meaningfully changed your mind in a long time • The team always waits for your decision • Nothing moves forward when you’re absent • Team members say, “Ask the boss.” • You are the bottleneck
Share doubts selectively Rely on documented facts Value “I don’t know” within team
2. FALSE CONFIDENCE
Reverse Impostor Syndrome Hiding doubt behind a façade
Confirmation bias Only seeking what confirms your ideas Epistemic arrogance To be overly confident in one’s knowledge Myth of hero leader Believing your Confidence alone is enough
Create a “red team” to look for weaknesses Reformulate the opposing argument in its strongest form Regularly audit your blind spots
3. CONFIDENCE
!
WITHOUT HUMILITY
Delegate important decisions Celebrate team successes Ask questions instead of giving answers Define areas where the team makes decisions on its own
4. ISOLATED CONFIDENCE
Learned dependency Team becomes passive
12 THE 7C LEADERSHIP COMPASS FOR MORAL AMBITION 2025 JONATHAN NORMAND. CREATIVE COMMONS LICENSE
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