PITFALL
SCIENTIFIC BASIS
WARNING SIGNS
SOLUTIONS
Over confidence Bias Overestimating one’s abilities Dunning-Kruger Effect The less you master, the more you believe you’re an expert Impression Management Playing the role of a confident leader. Reverse Impostor Syndrome Hiding doubt behind a façade Confirmation bias Only seeking what confirms your ideas Epistemic arrogance To be overly confident in one’s knowledge
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Results rarely surprise you You ignore team alerts Success = my merit / Failures = not my fault Nobody contradicts you You avoid difficult questions Change subject when probed You use jargon to mask uncertainty Constant anxiety despite a calm appearance You surround yourself with like-minded people You interpret data in ways that reinforce your existing beliefs You are quick to dismiss opposing viewpoints You haven’t meaningfully changed your mind in a long time The team always waits for your decision Nothing moves forward when you’re absent Team members say, “Ask the boss.” You are the bottleneck
Note predictions, compare to results
1. EXCESS CONFIDENCE
Conduct a “pre-mortem” Ask for critical feedback Keep a journal of mistakes
Pitfalls to avoid:
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Share doubts selectively Rely on documented facts Value “I don’t know” within team
2. FALSE CONFIDENCE
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Confidence
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3. CONFIDENCE WITHOUT HUMILITY
Create a “red team” to look for weaknesses Reformulate the opposing argument in its strongest form
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Regularly audit your blind spots
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Myth of hero leader Believing your Confidence alone is enough Learned dependency Team becomes passive
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4. ISOLATED CONFIDENCE
Delegate important decisions Celebrate team successes Ask questions instead of giving answers Define areas where the team makes decisions on its own
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13 © 2026 JONATHAN NORMAND. THIS WORK IS LICENSED UNDER A CREATIVE COMMONS ATTRIBUTION NONCOMMERCIAL 4.0 INTERNATIONAL LICENSE (CC BY-NC 4.0)
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