Most county authorities will be progressing through Local Government Reorganisation between now and mid-2028. Whilst senior leaders engaged in this work recognised the complication this would introduce for local authorities in playing their role in introducing the system shifts described, views were mixed about the level of effect that this might have. Some leaders felt this kind of progress should be made regardless, whilst others felt it is not realistic to implement these system shifts in parallel to the reorganisation of councils. Given this, no specific assumptions have been made about the potential impact of LGR in the assumptions relating to delivery timelines. The resultant impact of these assumptions is shown for children entering care in Figure 24.
The following assumptions were then made about the timeframes over which these impacts could be achieved: 1. That it would take until the end of 2027 to introduce the system shifts described. 2. That in 2028, whilst the shifts are bedding in, only half the impact on children entering the care system would be achieved. 3. From 2029 onwards, the full impact on children entering the care system would be achieved. 4. The profile of impact on rates of children exiting the care system would ‘lag’ by one year, reflecting the approximate timeframe that processes to support children to exit the care system typically take (leading to half impact in 2029 and full impact from 2030 onwards).
Figure 23: The rate of children entering care each year within county local authorities, per 10,000 population The rate of children entering care each year within county local authorities, per 10,000 population
100
90
80
70
Current average across county local authorities
60
Average across county local authorities, including a 14.5% reduction in children entering care
50
40
30
20
10
0
Local Authority
Figure 24: Number of children entering the care of county and CCN unitary member authorities per year Number of children entering the care of county authorities per year
CCN member authority
Average all CCN member authorities
Average across all CCN members (with impact)
10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Actual number of children entering care
‘Do nothing’ projection
Projection with impact
60
61
61
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