If the reduction in children entering care per year was delivered on its own, it would have a consequential impact of reducing the number of children exiting care each year by ~1,800 (between 2029 and 2035) as a result of fewer children being in the care system (compared to the increasing ‘do nothing’ baseline). Layering in the opportunity to support more children to exit the care system, based on the assumptions detailed above, reduces the magnitude of this reduction to ~1,550 children per year – a ~250 children per year increase . This is shown in Figure 25.
Across the projection to 2035, this average difference between the ‘do nothing’ and ‘with impact’ projections from 2029 is approximately 2,250 fewer children entering the care system each year . These projections are based on analysis of county and CCN unitary member authorities so are likely to be higher for non-county authorities with higher levels of deprivation.
The consequential impact of overall numbers of children in the care of county and CCN unitary member authorities is shown in Figure 26. Figure 26: Total number of children in care of county authorities Total number of children in care of county authorities
31000
29000
27000
Figure 25: Number of children exiting the care of county authorities per year Number of children exiting the care of county authorities per year
25000
10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
23000
21000
19000
17000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
15000
Actual number of children in care Number of children in care (with impact) Number of children in care (do nothing)
Actual number of children exiting care With impact on children entering only
‘Do nothing projection’ of children exiting care With impact on children entering and exiting
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