Fact box Mongolia (National Statistic Office of Mongolia, 2022)
• Area: around 1.5 million km2. • Population: 3.4 million, of which 2.3 million live in urban areas. • Capital city Ulaanbaatar has 1.6 million inhabitants. • Population density: around two persons/km2. • Population is growing at around 50-60,000 persons/year, equal to an annual growth rate of about 1.9%. • A large share of the “new” population is in informal settlement areas, called Ger*) areas, which account for around 58% of the total building stock of Ulaanbaatar. • In 2020, the total number of households in Mongolia was 897,400, of which 60.9% were houses, 38.2% were Gers, and 0.9% were other dwellings. Within the housing category, around 50% were apartment buildings and 50% detached houses. *) Ger is a round tent, a portable housing structure composed of a wooden frame with a felt covering, traditionally used by nomadic herders.
Long-term 2050 scenario For the analysis behind the 2050 scenario, two 2050 heating systems are modelled: a baseline fossil fuel-based system and a 100% RE-based system. The Baseline 2050 system is a projection of the current coal-based heating system to 2050. The Renewable 2050 system is a 100% renewables-based system using a mix of RE technologies, such as geothermal, solar thermal, large-scale heat pumps, and waste incineration. The results for both systems are compared regarding annual system costs, primary energy supply, greenhouse gas (GHG), and particulate matter emissions. Short-term 2030 scenario Once the long-term 2050 scenario is finalized, it’s then back cast to create a short-term scenario for 2030. This serves as a benchmark for the short-term implementation of measures such as energy efficiency improvements in DH networks,
building renovations, expansion of renewable heat supply capacity, and DH. This scenario helps energy planners ensure that future policies are aligned with a high-level, long-term goal. The current heating situation in Mongolia In general, the energy supply in Mongolia is dominated by coal – in 2021, more than 880 PJ out of 1,060 PJ were based on coal, equivalent to more than 80% of the total primary energy supply – mainly produced domestically. The heating sector is nearly entirely based on coal, both in DH supply and individual households. Coal provides an economical option for the heat supply to the population but is also a main cause of many challenges in the country. Local pollution due to coal usage is high in cities, causing respiratory-related health issues.
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