smaller than 10 µm (PM10)) and SO2, - was up to ten times higher than the limits recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Since the National Programme for Reducing Air and Environmental Pollution 2017–2025 has been implemented, the PM2.5 concentration fell by 51% in 2019 – 2020 compared to the level in 2016 – 2020 – but many days are still at “unhealthy,” “very unhealthy” or “hazardous” levels during the winter. For example, around 85 days were in these three categories from October 2021 to March 2022. This is a severe health problem that needs to be addressed. Energy systems with low energy efficiency In Mongolia, three coal-fired combined heat and power (CHP) plants and about 100 heat-only boilers (HOBs) supply the existing DH system, accounting for 98% of the DH supply. They are very old and need renovation – most/all plants were commissioned in 1983 or earlier. The energy efficiency of Mongolia’s existing buildings and its DH infrastructure need attention. Heat losses in the Ulaanbaatar DH network are around 17%, which is relatively
Most buildings in Mongolia have low energy efficiency, and their heat supply systems are also inefficient. Furthermore, a large share of the population has relatively low purchasing power, which implies that upgrading heating systems and integrating more renewable supply is not a simple pathway. Finally, the country’s population is increasing rapidly, only adding to these problems if the current heating-related challenges are not addressed. Mongolia, however, also has large potential sources of RE - especially wind, solar, and geothermal energy. Main challenges and opportunities The reliance on and availability of coal create critical challenges for advancing the country’s efforts to reduce GHG emissions from the energy sector. In addition, extreme air pollution lev- els are evident due to these heating systems’ emissions, which contribute about 80% of the country’s accounted air pollution. This condition is worsened by the geographic conditions in cer- tain cities (for example, cities surrounded by mountains), such as the case of Ulaanbaatar and its temperature inversion layer. During the winters of 2015-2020, the average concentration of the three major sources of air pollution - PM2.5, PM10 (mass weight of particles smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and particles
Figure 1: The development of district heating demand in Ulaanbaatar from 2020 to 2050.
Figure 2: Primary energy demand, including electricity export balance for the assessed cases.
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