The Catalan question
independence crisis, President Mariano Rajoy affirmed that the law is fundamental to democracy, thereby discrediting the democratic aspect of Catalonia's fight for independence. As such the constitutional tribunal approved the arrest of 14 senior Catalan officials and many more after the referendum. If a legal referendum were to be called, it would have to be called through the central government not just through one region. 14 Spaniards, including the ex-prime minister, also argue that Catalonia has never been an independent region. 15 Before it became Spanish, it was part of the Kingdom of Aragon; before that, it was Moorish, Visigoth and Roman. Spain encompasses a diverse range of cultures and languages, including Galician, Basque, Catalan, Valencian, and Mallorquin. Catalonia does not entirely stand out culturally or historically, which raises questions about its independence, though, as has been said, it has outperformed other regions economically. Another obstacle to a solution lies in Spanish politicians who stand against independence to gain support; the two front-runners right now – Feijo and Sanchez – both stand firmly against independence. This is in their interest not only as the potential president, but also in elections to gain support from the Spanish people whose interests lie in a strong, united Spain. Furthermore, Catalonia is a major decentralized economic zone in Spain, providing 20% of Spain’s GDP and 26 per cent of its exports; 16 its major city, Barcelona, is the second largest in the country. The secession of Catalonia would result in a huge blow for the Spanish economy, so unity remains in the best interests of Spanish politicians regardless of their position on the political spectrum. The interests of Spanish politicians are threatened by this crisis in other ways as well. Catalonia isn’t the only Spanish autonomous region with separatist sentiment. The Basque country has a strong independence movement led currently by EH Bildu. In the past, terrorist groups such as ETA have caused immense unrest fighting for independence in the region. Catalan independence may reignite this flame and create more problems for Spain. Spanish resistance to Catalan independence is rooted in constitutional principle, and in real economic fears. The EU also has a vested interest in maintaining Spanish unity; a successful secession could embolden separatist demands in EU nations, such as those in Corsica and Flanders. 17 Although it may seem as if Catalonia has everything to gain and Spain has everything to lose, this is not quite the case. In 2017, during the referendum, Catalonia experienced a near economic crisis, which cost the region between 0.3 and 2.5 GDP points. If Catalonia had succeeded, the Bank of Spain estimated a loss of 60% of its GDP growth for the next year. 2,200 companies left the region during the crisis. Six of these were part of the IBEX-35; many more would have left if secession had gone through. Major banks such as Caixa and Sabadell would have had to relocate all their assets outside of the region to protect their clients. 18 Both Catalan banks have now also moved their tax residences elsewhere. During the first independence movement, negotiation attempts fell apart to the extent that the Catalan officials decided to proceed 14 The Economist , “Why the Referendum on Catalan Independence Is Illegal,” The Economist Explains , September 26, 2017, https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/09/26/why-the-referendum-on-catalan- independence-is-illegal. 15 See McRoberts (n.2). 16 See Castells (n.9). 17 Birol Biçer, ‘Will Catalonia Create a Domino Effect in Europe?,’ Politics Today , November 21, 2017, https://politicstoday.org/will-catalonia-create-a-domino-effect-in-europe/. 18 The Potential Impact of the Catalan Crisis on the Spanish Economy , Expert Comment 47/2017, Elcano Royal Institute, November 8, 2017. Accessed September 1, 2025. https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/commentaries/the- potential-impact-of-the-catalan-crisis-on-the-spanish-economy/.
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