Semantron 26

Summer 2026

Summer 2025

Semantron was founded in 1992 by Dr. Jan Piggott (Head of English, and then Archivist at the College) together with one of his students, Richard Scholar (now Professor in the School of Modern Languages and Cultures at Durham University).

The photographs used for the covers and at the start of each part of this issue of Semantron were taken by Jack Shao of Year 12.

Editor’s introduction

Neil Croally

‘The Picasso of Jazz’

Duke Ellington on Miles Davis

As you are no doubt aware from all the newspaper articles, TV tributes and radio commemorations, 2026 is the centenary of the birth of Miles Davis. There are plenty of compelling accounts of Davis’ eventful life, including his addiction to heroin, experience of racism, and cruelty to women. 1 There are many analyses – from the journalistic to the seriously academic – of Davis’ contributions to an astonishing variety of jazz styles, 2 from the hot, heady harmonic virtuosity of bebop, through cool jazz, hard bop, the modal jazz of 1959’s Kind of Blue , 3 the novel approach to big band jazz in collaboration with Gil Evans ( Porgy and Bess, Sketches of Spain ), the abstract sophistication of his second great quintet’s music in the 1960s 4 and, finally, to the still divisive form known as fusion. 5 Much has also been made of Davis as a nurturer of talent. The list of jazz players who attended (in Jackie Maclean‘s words) ‘the university of Miles Davis’ reads like a roll-call of jazz greats: Paul Chambers, John Coltrane, Bill Evans, Ron Carter, Tony Williams, Herbie Hancock, Wayne Shorter, Chick Corea, John McLaughlin, Keith Jarrett, Marcus Miller . . . All-in-all, Miles Davis was the very embodiment of artistic creativity and of self-reinvention. Hence the appreciation of Duke Ellington (himself a giant of jazz) quoted at the top of this essay.

But the truth of Ellington’s comparison lies not only in Davis’ and Picasso’s artistic achievements but also in the troubling fact that both men abused women. Can we appreciate the art and overlook the violence and the abuse? Will our discovery of intolerable behaviour towards other human beings

1 The autobiography – Davis 1990 – is certainly compelling. See also Carr 1982; Chambers 1998; Szwed 2002. 2 Carr 1982; Chambers 1998. More academic work: Waters 2011; Yudkin 2024. See also Kirchner 1997. 3 For two contrasting but both interesting accounts of the making of Kind of Blue , see Kahn 2000; Kaplan 2024. 4 Detailed appreciations of the 1960s quintet can be found in Waters 2011 and Yudkin 2024. 5 My own view is that the some of the records between 1968 and 1972 – In a Silent Way, Bitches Brew (on which, see Grella 2015) , Live Evil, On the Corner – are extraordinary. None of them sounds like anything else made by anyone else, yet they have at the same time been remarkably influential (in ambient music, hip-hop and so on). However, some of the records Davis put out in the mid-70s (e.g. Agharta, Pangaea – both recordings of a concert on the same day in 1975), dominated by heavy guitars and drums, are distinctly less appealing. It does not help, of course, that aficionados of prog rock see this sort of thing as their music. That fusion was divisive is obvious from the famous article by Stanley Crouch (‘Play the Right Thing’, New Republic , 12 February 1990; quoted by Grella 2015: 10), in which he argues that first there was jazz: ‘And then came the fall.’ From In a Silent Way and Bitches Brew , Davis is seen as ‘infecting jazz with the virus of rock’ (Grella 2015: 10). Neither record sounds much like any rock music I know. That this view is still present can be seen from these Telegraph- reader-like remarks I found (oddly) in the Guardian comments online: ‘Sadly, this [Davis’ musical intelligence] was overshadowed by the frankly dreadful rock-influenced work of his later years: that stuff is to jazz as the Hundred is to Test cricket.’ The statement belongs to Dr Richard Carter of Putney; see https://www.theguardian.com/music/2026/may/31/miles-daviss-superior- musical-intelligence (31 May 2026).

inevitably stain our love of the music or the painting? How do we weigh the life against the art? 6 How much pain – not only of the artist but of those close to the artist – is creativity worth? 7 Miles Davis’ life was great because any consideration of the sources, effects and meaning of creativity must include his achievements, 8 but also because he confronts us with the problem of how to evaluate great art created by a man whose treatment of women was so often deplorable. A few words about this year’s contributions. While most of the essays were produced as extended essays or EPQ dissertations, several were written for prize competitions. The pieces by Messrs Al- Saheal, Dewe, Kochhar, Lerner, Lo, Sinclair and Tang were all entered for the inaugural Friends of Dulwich Essay Competition . Faris Al-Saheal was awarded the 2 nd prize; the rest were highly commended. The contributions of Messrs Leung (on immigration), O’Connell and Todd were all written for this year’s Erasmus competition. Again, all were highly commended. Finally, in the Popper Prize, Thomas Callaghan (of year 10) was awarded 2 nd place for his essay on the (ir)rationality of fearing death. I sometimes muse that Semantron will be a valuable source for future cultural historians, revealing as it does the concerns and anxieties of the day, especially as experienced by young people. Of particular interest in this issue, seen in a number of essays, are the various relations and trade-offs between prosperity and economic growth, on the one hand, and sustainability, democracy, equality and fairness, on the other. The representation of power, especially how it relates to identity, continues to be seen as an important topic, as does the marvellous variety of scientific achievement (in this issue there are important contributions about chirality, genetics, neural development, quantum). Not so common is the topic of death but in Semantron 26 you can read and enjoy two very different pieces, though they are both broadly philosophical.

Once again, I hope readers will enjoy the impressive range and ambition of the work reproduced here.

6 Dederer 2024 is a (good) starting point. 7 Dyer (1991) – arguably the best book written about jazz – highlights the addictions, mental health difficulties, and prison terms of jazz players in the middle of the 20 th century (pp. 197-8): ‘But still the damage wrought on jazz musicians is such that you wonder if there is not something else, something in the form itself [my italics] which exacts a terrible toll from those who create it. . . from the 1940s onward jazz advanced with the power and ferocity of a fire sweeping through a forest. How could an art form have developed so rapidly and at such a pitch of excitement without exacting a huge human toll?’ 8 Miles Davis is also important when considering the racism experienced by black musicians in the USA (he was beaten by a policemen while having a smoke outside a jazz club). Quite a few of the jazz musicians of the middle of the 20 th century found that they were treated with unfamiliar respect in European countries. Some chose to base themselves in Europe as a result; Miles Davis himself fell for the French actor and singer, Juliette Greco. There is a surprising passage in Billie Holiday’s autobiography (1956), in which she is full of praise for the then recent NHS, an example, she says, of a country treating all people with respect. Another way in which Miles Davis is a good starting point for a consideration of racism and black music is his attitude to the blues (that some find surprising). He always found it patronising that white people assumed that the ability to play the blues was based on black suffering. Riffing on the lyrics of Summertime , Davis said ‘My daddy was rich, my ma was good-looking.’ Davis has also provoked discussion as an artist who insisted on black faces on the covers of his records, and as a black fashion icon.

Bibliography

Carr, I. 1982. Miles Davis, A Critical Biography . London Chambers, J. 1998. Milestones. The Music and Times of Miles Davis . Boston Davis, M. 1990. Miles: the autobiography. London Dederer, C. 2024. Monsters. What do we do with Great Art by Bad People? London

Dyer, G. 1991. But Beautiful. London Grella, G. 2015. Bitches Brew . London Holliday, B. 1956. Lady Sings the Blues . New York Kahn, A. 2000. Kind of Blue. Miles Davis and the Making of a Masterpiece . London Kaplan, J. 2024. 3 Shades of Blue. Miles Davis, John Coltrane, Bill Evans and the Lost Empire of Cool. Edinburgh Kirchner, B. ed. 1997. A Miles Davis Reader . Washington, D.C. Szwed, J. 2002. So What: the life of Miles Davis . London

Waters, K. 2011. The Studio Recordings of the Miles Davis Quintet, 1965-68 . Oxford Yudkin, J. 2024. Miles Davis, Miles Smiles and the invention of Post-Bop . Bloomington

iii

Contents

Part one

BALANCE

2 Socio-economic mobility and the UK government’s plan to impose VAT on school fees JUSTIN J

7 Socio-economic mobility and the UK government’s plan to impose VAT on school fees DYLAN TP

11 Pricing strategies, behavioural nudges, consumer behaviour and market outcomes in the UK’s retail sector OLIVER A

When more is less: the effects of choice overload on decision-making and satisfaction ERNESTO C

The persistence of protectionism in a globalized economy FELIX S

24 Tariffs and deficits – why the U.S. policy approach failed to fix external trade imbalances JACK L

28 Will declining populations be the greatest issue economies face in the 21 st century? BILLY S

31 To what extent is the energy transition, to reach net zero by 2050, economically and politically possible? ALEX S

46 Should the government prioritize economic growth over environmental sustainability? RAPHAEL L

49 Should the government prioritize economic growth over environmental sustainability? RAPHAEL T

Money is killing the developing world: the case for radical sustainability LOUIE S

Economic inequality and political polarization in the 21st century JAY L

Part two

NUMBER, MACHINE, BODY

Conjectures of number theory: the enduring mystery of simple statements CHRISTOPHER W

The search for ever larger prime numbers AUSTIN W

The Yoneda lemma ALASDAIR M

Will the Turing Test ever be passed DANNY C

The two faces of progress: the macroeconomic impacts of artificial intelligence JAMES M

91 Employment law and the regulation of the use of artificial intelligence and automation in hiring and workplace management practices VIN W

Video summarization: methods, trends, applications RYAN W

107

Applications of machine learning in solving memory loss issues RUIBIN L

112

Paternal lifestyle and epigenetic inheritance NALDO G

115

The impact of brain infections on early human development ALEX Si

118

Innovative applications of small-molecule chirality MARCUS M

Part three

ACCESS

126

Is democracy the best form of government for economic prosperity? ATTICUS D

129

Is democracy the best form of government for economic prosperity? VIKRAM SK

133

Is democracy the best form of government for economic prosperity? FARIS AL-S

138

Does economic inequality inevitably lead to problems of political inequality? ALEXANDER P

145

Under what circumstances is the state justified in restricting what we can say? AIDAN L

148 ‘Use every man after his desert, and who should ‘scape whipping?’ Should the law treat offenders better than they deserve? ALEX Z

153

Trial by jury THOMAS F

158

Borders should be open because where one is born is a matter of luck DAN T

162

Immigration and the protection of cultural traditions AIDAN L

168

Immigration and the protection of cultural traditions DANIEL O’C

171

Is it rational to fear death? THOMAS C

175

Should the Assisted Dying Bill be extended to the non-terminally ill? EMIR S

Part four

ENERGY and DESIGN

188 Quantum teleportation and entanglement swapping – moving states, not particles JUSTIN S

194

What are gravitational waves and how were they detected? ARIEL R

199

Peering through the fog JOSEPH R

204

Transport for London: good and sustainable public transport in the capital WENTAO L

213 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar technology, ground deformation resilience and mapping in urban environments in the United Kingdom ROMAN Z

218

The engineering of autonomous combat drones OLIVER D

224

On the moquette: how did one textile take over the railcar? MILO O

Part five

REPRESENTATION, HISTORY, POWER

229

Does ancient literature equate might with right? SIMON H

232 The representation of women and the promotion of imperial or royal power in the ancient world BOSCO C

237

On Voltaire and Cicero TOM de M

241

The evolution of the hero: heroic values across literary cultures RAPHAEL DEL P

245

The writing of Albert Camus as philosophy EDWARD B

249 The canon as kindling: Jane Eyre , Wide Sargasso Sea and the English literary canon DANIEL B

253

The production design of A Series of Unfortunate Events ZACHY F

257

St Bartholomew the Great Church FRANK T

261

Nationalism in the Habsburg Empire CONRAD S

vii

271 Horizontal collaboration and attitudes towards gender and national identity in Vichy France BRODIE B

275

The practicalities of the Pan-African mission DAVID A

279

The Catalan question NICOLAS P-M

283 The unfinished handover: strategic ambiguity, ‘one country, two systems’, and the evolution of Hong Kong’s judiciary AIDAN L

291

Genghis Khan and human freedom KARAM I

viii

Part one

BALANCE

Socio-economic mobility and the UK government’s plan to impose VAT on school fees

Justin J

Introduction When the Labour Party of the UK came to power in 2024, part of their manifesto was a 20% Value- Added Tax (VAT) on private school fees. The aim of the tax is to increase government revenue and use the revenue to fund state schools. This brings changes to socio-economic mobility of the UK. Socio-economic mobility refers to how a person's socio-economic situation improves or declines relative to that of their parents or throughout their lifetime (OECD, 2024). This essay examines the effect of this VAT, with a specific focus on intergenerational mobility, defined as the comparison of an individual's socio-economic status to that of their parents (Social Mobility Hub, 2024). It argues that in the short run, this VAT will lead to a decline in the quality of private education, and marginal households' access will be constrained, resulting in downward mobility. In the long run, VAT could be used to reform substantially and create a better public education system, thereby promoting upward mobility. To support the argument, the analysis will be divided into human capital formation and inequality. For human capital, both micro-level effects on households and schools and macro-level effects on the national education system will be assessed. For inequality, the focus will be on whether the VAT alters its extent in a way that affects overall socio-economic mobility.

Human capital and mobility : theoretical framework

This essay applies the human capital accumulation model developed by Galor and Zeira (1993), which focuses on the effects of income distribution on economic outcomes via investment in education. Income distribution is a key determinant of intergenerational mobility (Becker and Tomes, 1979).

The model uses x t to represent the income or wealth of an individual or generation t , and x t +1 as the income of their child in the next generation. The 45- degree line shows perfect intergenerational income persistence. Points above this line show upward mobility and points below represent a decline. A key feature of the model is the threshold f, representing the cost of education. For low-income households where x t < f , the return is flat— households do not invest in education due to liquidity constraints or credit market imperfections, and intergenerational mobility stagnates. When x t > f , households can afford education, such as private schooling, and see returns in the form of upward mobility. Figure 1: Galor-Zeira Model on Income Distribution

VAT on school fees

Micro-level effect The micro-level consequences of the VAT policy are most directly felt by families and schools. Schools might be affected in the sense that they will cut budgets, which can be reflected in reduced staff or reduced quality of school life. The latter is the key distinction between private and state education, where private school students have a wider range of opportunities compared to state education, which improves their socio-economic mobility. An article by The Times (2025) stated that Stamford School closed its German department and would no longer offer Latin at A-level while it had battled hard to keep its Latin GCSE. This shows the nature of private schools, that without government subsidy, their profit motive ushers the schools to either cut costs or eventually close down. This directly impacts students when their chances are narrowed, which leads to lowered socio-economic mobility. However, it is important to consider the types of students attending private schools. Brunello and Rocco (2008) found that private schools tend to have a less demanding academic environment compared to state schools, meaning some private school students may have lower academic abilities. Wealthy families will likely continue to afford private education even after the VAT is introduced. Therefore, the VAT mainly affects students attending private schools for lower academic standards, who will bear the additional tax cost. Meanwhile, the VAT revenue could be used to improve state schools, providing better education for those students. This shift could increase the human capital in public education and enhance socio-economic mobility.

Linking back to Figure 1, households that fall below the threshold f due to the VAT will reduce their investment in private education. This implies stagnation or even decline in intergenerational mobility, unless the public system compensates by providing comparable or better returns.

Macro-level effect The VAT imposes financial constraints on access to private education, which may reduce human capital accumulation as a whole and, in turn, affect socio-economic mobility. Private schools contribute significantly to human capital formation. According to a study by Coleman, Hoffer, and Kilgore (1982), students in Catholic and other private schools performed better than students in public schools in vocabulary and mathematics. UK private schools are also known for promoting ‘supra-curricular’ enrichment, fostering students’ character and soft skills—both valuable in today’s labour market. Moreover, scholarships and bursaries enable high-performing students from low-income backgrounds to access this quality education, further contributing to upward mobility and national human capital. However, the imposition of VAT has already led to 37,000 students—approximately 6% of the private school population—leaving the sector (House of Commons Library, 2024). To retain enrolment, schools have cut costs, often by reducing staff or limiting extracurricular options, which could diminish the quality of education and reduce human capital development. This erosion aligns with the Galor- Zeira model: families pushed below the investment threshold f cannot afford high-return educational investments, resulting in lower future incomes and reduced intergenerational mobility.

Nonetheless, a transfer in resources towards state education may still potentially yield long-term

VAT on school fees

macroeconomic benefits. In a study on government subsidies in South Korea, it became evident that a 20 percent increase in per-pupil funding for underperforming schools reduced the number of below-average students in mathematics, English, social studies, and science by 19.7 percent, 17.0 percent, 16.1 percent, and 18.1 percent compared with the control-side means (see figure 2). This shows that when a government shifts the aim towards state schools, student achievement in state schools will increase, potentially reducing gaps between state school pupils and private education students. This

Figure 2: Relationship between per-pupil spending and % of below-average students in 2010 (South Korea)

creates a bigger impact than the small population of private school pupils, and increases human capital more widely. When human capital is improved, the majority of the population can reach for higher- paid occupations, improving the level of socio-economic mobility.

This can especially be realized in Britain. Considering that only 6.4% of pupils in England attend private schools (BBC, 2024), investing in state education offers potentially larger national returns. In Galor- Zeira terms, a rise in the effective income of the lower-income majority—via subsidized state education—raises their investment capacity and returns, promoting mobility. With enhanced state education, more households may cross the threshold f , increasing overall productivity and long-run growth. Still, several challenges remain. First, the effect of redirected funds involves time lags; improved state school outcomes will not be immediate. Second, the scale of tax revenue may not suffice to generate significant improvements across all state schools, especially in disadvantaged areas. If this occurs, the policy risks creating a vacuum: diminishing private education without adequately uplifting public provision.

Inequality and mobility Inequality is also an important factor to consider, especially when a tax is involved. Inequality is the unequal distribution of resources such as wealth, income, and opportunities within an economy. The Great Gatsby Curve (Corak, 2013) illustrates a positive correlation between income inequality and socio-economic mobility: higher inequality is associated with lower mobility. This echoes Blanden’s (2005) study that the UK’s decline in

Figure 3: The Great Gatsby Curve (Corak, 2013)

VAT on school fees

mobility in the past decades was because new opportunities to continue education at ages 16 and 18 mainly benefited students from wealthier families. VAT’s role in influencing inequality becomes vital in examining effects on socio-economic mobility.

Applying this to the VAT on private school fees, the effect may only be modest. In theory, by reducing educational privilege, the policy should over time contribute to higher mobility. If the initiative succeeds in shrinking the quality gap between private and state education, children from less wealthy families will have better chances to compete for top universities and jobs. Nevertheless, this effect may be modest. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022) estimated that the effective 15%–20% VAT on fees might lead to only a 3–7% reduction in private school pupil numbers (roughly 20,000–40,000 fewer pupils), as the wealthiest families will absorb the cost and continue in private education. This suggests the elite sector will remain largely intact. Furthermore, VAT is regressive. Though it is only taxed among private schools, poorer families already using private schools (for example, via scholarships or sacrifice) might be hardest hit. Assuming all private school students are wealthy is misleading. Low and middle-income households choose to send their children to private schools in search of better education opportunities and quality, yet the tax imposed an extra added cost that, for many, tipped them over the edge (BBC, 2025). Children from less privileged families lose access to the extended opportunities of private schools, increasing the chance of a persistent poverty cycle. According to the Galor-Zeira model, these families remain below the investment threshold f , leading to minimal human capital accumulation and little or no upward mobility. However, if VAT revenue is effectively redistributed into state schools—improving facilities, teaching, and curriculum—it may offset the regressive nature of the tax. In that case, mobility could be preserved or even improved for students from disadvantaged backgrounds, especially those who had never accessed private schooling. Yet this depends on the scale and efficiency of redistribution—if underfunded, state schools may see limited improvements, and inequality could rise further. Evaluation Bringing together the VAT’s effects on human capital formation and income inequality, and linking both to socio-economic mobility, it is evident that the policy operates on a double-edged path. In the short term, it may reduce private educational quality and limit access for marginal households, reinforcing inequality and stagnating mobility, as predicted by the Galor-Zeira model. However, in the long run, if VAT revenues are used to significantly improve public education, particularly in disadvantaged areas, they can lift a far greater share of the population above the educational investment threshold, enhancing aggregate human capital and mobility. Thus, the VAT has the potential to reduce inequality and increase mobility, but only if the government commits to sustained, effective reinvestment in the state sector. Conclusion The VAT on private school fees, introduced by the UK Labour Party, has far-reaching implications for socio-economic mobility. At the micro level, it affects family choices and school decision-making, potentially restricting access to high-return education. At the macro level, it may reduce short-term

VAT on school fees

human capital accumulation among private school students but offers the potential for long-term gains through investment in state education.

Inequality remains a major concern. While VAT is inherently regressive, its redistributive potential lies in its ability to enhance educational outcomes for the majority. Whether it narrows or widens the mobility gap depends on how revenue is allocated. Grounded in the Galor-Zeira framework and supported by Corak’s findings, this essay concludes that while the policy carries risks, it also presents a structural opportunity to improve overall socio-economic mobility in the UK, provided the state delivers on its promise of educational investment. Ultimately, with efficient redistribution, this reform could mark a turning point in equalizing educational opportunities for future generations.

Bibliography

BBC News. 2024. ‘What VAT on Private School Fees Means.’ BBC, November 30, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c033dp0z1edo BBC News. 2025. ‘Private School VAT: What Parents Say.’ BBC, May 19, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xqz49dnjyo Becker, G. and N. Tomes. 1979. ‘An Equilibrium Theory of the Distribution of Income and Intergenerational Mobility’, Journal of Political Economy 87 (6): 1153–89 Blanden, J., P. Gregg, and S. Machin. 2005. ‘Intergenerational Mobility in Europe and North

America’,

Report supported by the Sutton Trust. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics Brunello, G. and L. Rocco. 2008. ‘Educational Standards in Private and Public Schools’, The Economic Journal 118 (533): 1866–87. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02194.x Coleman, J., T. Hoffer, and S. Kilgore. 1982. ‘Cognitive Outcomes in Public and Private Schools’, Sociology of Education 55 (2): 65–76. https://doi.org/10.2307/2112288 Corak, M. 2013. ‘Income inequality, equality of opportunity, and intergenerational mobility’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 27.3: 79-102 Galor, O. and J. Zeira. 1993. ‘Income Distribution and Macroeconomics’, The Review of Economic Studies 60 (1): 35–52. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297811 Green, F. 2022. ‘Private Schools and Inequality’, IFS Deaton Review of Inequalities . London: Institute for Fiscal Studies House of Commons Library. 2024. ‘VAT on Private School Fees’, UK Parliament, March 22, 2024. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10125/. OECD. 2024. Social Mobility and Equal Opportunity. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/social-mobility-and-equal- opportunity.html. Sohn, H., H. Park, and H. Jung. 2023. ‘The Effect of Extra School Funding on Students. Academic Achievements under a Centralized School Financing System’, Education Finance and Policy 18 (1): 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1162/edfp_a_00375. Social Mobility Hub. 2024. Socioeconomic Mobility . https://socialmobilityhub.org/research- library/socioeconomic-mobility/. The Times. 2025. ‘Most Private Schools Cutting Staff after Labour’s VAT Hit’, The Times, May 2, 2025. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/most-private-schools-cutting-staff-after- labours-vat-hit-9wgt85cf5

Socio-economic mobility and the UK government's plan to impose value added tax on school fees

Dylan TP

The UK undoubtedly has a social mobility problem. In Canada there is a 14% probability of moving from the bottom fifth of the income ladder to the top fifth; in the UK the probability is just 9%. 1 Additionally, the percentage of children whose family income was higher than their parents' family income at the same age has been steadily declining since the 1970s, indicating a worrisome downward trend in absolute mobility. Considering the growth of the UK’s economy over the same period, it is clear socio-economic mobility in the UK has been undermined. Whilst unequal distributions of growth and labour market polarization can be attributed to the stagnation of the UK’s relative and absolute mobility, the determinant of education in many ways is the foundation for a country’s ability to improve the socio-economic mobility of its individuals. After all, 44% of the Sunday Times UK Rich List attended private schools, despite just 7% of the overall population being privately educated. 2 How then can the government’s implementation of VAT on private school fees change the socio-economic mobility fortunes of the UK? As well as removing this exemption on VAT at the beginning of the year, in April private schools had to start paying full property taxes. Thus, private school fees were 22.6% higher on average in January compared with a year ago. 3 The main motive driving increased taxation was to raise revenue for state education, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves saying that ‘every single penny’ of the estimated extra £460 million being raised in the 2024/25 financial year will go to state schools. 4 The hiring of more teachers, provision of better facilities and reduction in class sizes are just a few of the benefits this funding may provide and importantly will look to level the playing field between state and private education. Increased funding on public education could potentially echo the stance taken by the Scandinavian countries, whose investment into public education systems allows all students from all backgrounds equal opportunity in education. In Norway, 97.8% of spending on school education is public expenditure 5 and university is free, encouraging and not limiting socio-economic mobility. We should remember, though, that the impacts for Norway may not apply in the same way to the UK. 1 Blanden, J. and S. Machin, (2008) ‘Up and Down the Generational Income Ladder in Britain: Past Changes and Future Prospects,’ at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247749029_Up_and_Down_the_Generational_Income_Ladder_in_Britai n_Past_Changes_and_Future_Prospects. 2 Sira, N. ‘The Truth About VAT on Private School Fees,’ Naked Politics (2024) at https://www.nakedpolitics.co.uk/the-truth-about-vat-on-school-fees/ . 3 Clarke, V. and K. McGough, ‘Private schools say fees have gone up by 22% in last year,’ BBC News (2025) at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cre9z3133v8o. 4 Shearing, H. and V. Clarke, ‘Why was VAT added to private school fees?’ BBC News (2025) at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c033dp0z1edo . 5 Pickett, K. and R. Wilkinson (2009) coller The Spirit Level: Why Equality is Better for Everyone . London.

VAT on school fees (part 2)

The UK’s segregated state vs public school system is deeply embedded in the country’s culture. Cultural attitudes and animosity between the ideals of elitism and populism stretch far beyond education, and Norway’s stronger cultural attachment to equality makes it easier to achieve equality of opportunity. Moreover, the social capital of the UK’s elite private schools will make bridging the gap that much harder. Further polarizing private and state education could further worsen inter-class relationships and extend the gaps in social capital that the UK’s top private schools benefit from. Furthermore, decades of underfunding and regional disparities mean the extra tax benefits may not even come close to being enough. Norway’s immense GDP per capita allows for continued and consistent investment into education and matching this may require further taxation. Considering all these factors, the UK’s structure and culture will limit the extent of mobility gains. One of the major criticisms of the imposition of VAT on school fees was how it would most likely hit middle- class families the hardest and not do much to affect the wealthy, whom the policy mainly looked to target. A financial planner reported that families earning around £100k annually, with two children in day school, could be left with less disposable income than minimum wage earners after VAT was applied to average private school fees. 6 Because they are too wealthy to be eligible for assistance and too impoverished to bear the additional expense, this strained segment of society, known as the ‘squeezed middle’, faces a conundrum. Consequentially, the number of private school students in England this January has dropped by 11,000 since last year, far exceeding the previous predictions which estimated that just 3,000 students would be absorbed into the state system. 7 The number enrolled in private education is likely to drop further year on year, putting extra pressure on an already overwhelmed state system but importantly reveals flaws in Labour’s long-term strategy. Ultimately, as fewer pupils go into the independent sector, there will be fewer opportunities to charge VAT. Coupled with increasing pressure on the state sector, Labour may end up investing these extra taxes into a system made worse by their extra taxes, in a cycle which consistently squeezes and pinches the middle class. To make matters worse, the UK’s most elite private schools could in fact be set to benefit amidst the new VAT rules. By reclaiming the tax they have paid on capital projects like buildings and land acquisitions finished within the last ten years, VAT-registered institutions like Eton and Harrow may be able to benefit from large financial windfalls. As a result, the gap between the smallest and the richest private schools could widen, as elite schools are further able to market and improve themselves, while the poorer schools fight to keep down fees. Thus, even within the private sector, inequality and socio-economic mobility could worsen. More broadly, the alleged investment in levelling public and private education is offset by the widening of class divides, keeping socioeconomic mobility low.

6 ‘School fees leave families on £100k ‘with less than minimum wage’, The Times UK (2025) at https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/families-private-school-fees-vat-gross-income- wh6qvwsrr#Echobox=1746076687-1. 7 McGough, K. and H. Agerholm, ‘Private school pupil numbers drop by 11,000,’ BBC News (2025) at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lk2p7wpr4o.

VAT on school fees (part 2)

Having said this, the implementation of such a policy most definitely shows a strong sign of intent from the Labour government and is a policy which challenges the morality of private education. As already mentioned, the UK’s top educational institutions are ingrained in UK tradition and, while controversial, will no doubt continue to be a part of the education system for many years to come. Thus, the ultimate ideal of an entire system of well-funded and balanced state schools may be an unrealistic aspiration, even if it could be seen as a step in the right direction. Debates over private education have long been rooted in the fact that private schools were not a necessity but a luxury and should therefore not receive tax breaks. Now with the removal of this exemption, a message has been sent that such privilege should not and will not be subsidized by the state. It is hoped that, at least, from a social perspective, classrooms across the nation will gain from having a more varied student body that contributes to the development of a new generation of class-conscious people. Linking directly to socio-economic mobility, a UK study using anonymized Facebook data found that low-income children with cross-class friendships earn on average £5,100 more per year compared to their segregated peers, 8 highlighting the importance of these inter-class relationships. Therefore, in the long term, this policy may start to right the wrongs of ingrained class prejudices, bringing about a healthier and more socially mobile society. The socio-economic effects of imposed VAT, whether positive or negative, will be hard to measure. The vast range of potential societal, economic and political impacts on the UK’s socio-economic mobility mean, whatever the outcome, imposed VAT will make up just a fraction of the overall picture. Whilst educational outcomes and qualifications are key, recent data suggests that truancy rates are now similar across all social groups. 9 Geographically socio-economic mobility differs substantially across regions of the UK and the north-south divide continues to split the prospects of pupils. An indication of this gap is the promising prospects index, which divides local authorities in the UK into five groups according to the academic and employment outcomes of youth from comparable socioeconomic origins. All LAs in the top category labelled ‘most favourable’ sit in and around the London conurbation whilst all LAs in the bottom two categories ‘unfavourable’ and ‘least favourable’ – with the exception of Cornwall – lie north of Manchester. 10 Thus, location, employment opportunities and neighbourhood environment are equally important indicators of socio-economic mobility.

Furthermore, the importance of socio-economic mobility means those at the top will look to maintain their positions using markers of class and ’good taste’ to prevent those below them from creeping up the social hierarchy. Despite attempts at educational levellers, matters of taste and class which separate those with

8 ‘Poor pupils with richer friends will earn more as adults, study finds’, The Sunday Times (2025) at https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/poor-pupils-with-richer-friends-will-earn-more-as-adults-study- finds-sjjwsx25x?msockid=03836b1e2dca6d2f1ee37ef52c016cc3. 9 ‘New report explores factors impacting social mobility and adolescent wellbeing in the UK’, University of Oxford Department of Sociology (2024) at https://www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/article/new-report-explores-factors-impacting-social-mobility-and-adolescent- wellbeing-in-the-uk .

10 ‘ Social mobility by area’, Social Mobility Commission (2024) at https://social-mobility.data.gov.uk/social_mobility_by_area/latest .

VAT on school fees (part 2)

inherited wealth from the nouveau riche prevent those climbing the economic hierarchy from reaching the top of the social hierarchy through class prejudice. 11

The imposition of VAT on school fees also may have limited impact, as the complexity of socio-economic mobility transcends social, economic and political boundaries. Implementing VAT based on turnover could be fairer, reducing disparities between private schools while raising funds by taxing the elite who concentrate in those top institutions. Moreover, gradually phasing in the tax will reduce fee shocks on the middle class, and closing VAT loopholes prevents the elite schools from financially benefiting. More generally, there is a strong negative correlation between income inequality and intergenerational social mobility (see ‘The Great Gatsby Curve’). The Gini coefficient, which measures statistical dispersion representing income inequality, sees Norway placed 6 th out of the OECD nations with a Gini coefficient of 26.2, while the UK is 25 th with a coefficient of 35.4, just 6 places from the bottom of the list. 12 More equal societies tend to be more socially mobile, and thus income equality should be a major goal for the UK government. In Doughnut Economics , Kate Raworth discusses the idea of distributive economies, where wealth-generating resources are distributed, using the commons as a community resource for sharing knowledge and digital wealth as a public good. These approaches would help to reduce inequality within the UK. Moreover, compressing the wage structure would further improve disparities and improve economic fairness. Wagemark, a voluntary wage certification standard set up in Canada in 2013, ensures the ratio of total compensation of the highest-paid employee to that of the lowest-paid full-time employee must not exceed 8:1: this could be easily implemented into UK economic policy. Finally, ensuring a strong welfare state ensures the population is protected against poverty and protected from dropping down the socio-economic ladder. While a universal basic income has not yet been implemented formally anywhere in the world, a two-year study in Finland showed marked increases in life satisfaction, as well as in mental and physical health. 13

Aside from educational inequalities, the government should broaden their view, recognizing mobility as a systemic challenge encompassing wider socio-economic issues. Creating an economy which focuses on distributing wealth evenly will be crucial in improving Britain’s socio-economic future.

11 French sociologist Pierre Bourdieu coined the term ‘symbolic violence’ to describe these actions undertaken to maintain exclusive elitism; see Distinction: a social critique of the judgement of taste (Routledge, 2010). 12 ‘List of countries by income inequality’, Wikipedia (2025) at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_inequality. 13 ‘Finland sees promising results after nationwide experiment with universal basic income’, McKinsey & Company (2020) at https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/sustainable-inclusive-growth/charts/finland-sees-promising-results- after-nationwide-experiment-with-universal-basic-income.

Pricing strategies, behavioural nudges, consumer behaviour and market outcomes in the UK’s retail sector

Oliver A

Consumer behaviour is not only influenced by pricing strategies but also psychological factors that influence decisions in more subtle ways. These in turn shape microeconomic outcomes, which can be defined as how household and firm-level decisions affect consumer and producer surplus as well as allocative efficiency in the market. Pricing strategy is a technique commonly used by firms in the retail sector to influence demand and achieve goals such as increasing revenue, market share or sales. Behavioural nudges, however, are changes in the environment to make decisions that are more favourable for producers more likely, without restricting freedom of choice. This essay will explore how both of these principles influence consumer behaviour and how this affects microeconomic outcomes in the UK’s retail sector. Firms employ a range of pricing strategies including loss-leader, psychological and penetration pricing to influence consumer behaviour. Loss-leader pricing is selling a product at a lower price than it costs to produce which is commonly implemented to draw customers into a store. This strategy allows consumers to purchase goods at a lower price than they were otherwise willing to pay, creating consumer surplus as customers receive more value from their purchase. Firms use this strategy with the expectation that consumers will make additional unplanned purchases of higher margin products, relying on the profit made on those goods to make up for the initial loss. An example of this is supermarkets pricing essentials like vegetables at 30p a bag to increase traffic to the store. 1 This may then cause customers to make additional unplanned purchases, raising overall revenue for the firm. Psychological pricing is a technique that influences consumer perception of pricing. A typical technique that makes customers believe the price is significantly lower is left digit pricing where an item is listed at a price just below a round number. In a 2005 study, Thomas and Morwitz found strong evidence for this left-digit effect, describing that prices just below a round number are consistently judged to be significantly cheaper than those just above it. 2 This strategy often leads to an increase in demand for these products despite no change being made to the product itself, illustrating how firms benefit and boost sales from consumers’ behavioural tendencies. Penetration pricing is the strategy of setting an extremely low price for goods and services at for a limited time. This strategy is mostly used by new businesses when entering a competitive market aiming attract customers fast. Firms are forced to accept little to no profit in the short term but the aim is to develop consumer habits and loyalty. This strategy creates consumer surplus as consumers directly benefit from the extremely low prices in the short run, but if long-term loyalty is successfully developed, firms will become capable of maintaining demand while gradually increasing prices.

1 Butler 2024a. 2 Thomas & Morwitz 2005: 54-64.

Pricing strategies, behavioural nudges

Behavioural nudges are subtle changes in how products are displayed to influence consumers’ behaviour without limiting their options. 3 Nudges tend to exploit psychological tendencies in human behaviour that lead to irrational decisions. One type of behavioural nudge is framing, where presenting the same options differently affects how consumers perceive them. For example, customers may be more drawn to ‘Buy One Get One Free’ rather than ‘50% off’ as a result of how gain-loss framing influences judgement. 4 Another behavioural nudge is default bias, where individuals tend to stick with the pre-set, default option rather than actively choosing a different option. 5 For instance, pre-selected payment plans when shopping online may appear as if designed to increase convenience but they significantly affect outcomes in the seller’s favour. In the UK, Tesco’s loyalty card pricing is a clear real-world example of behavioural nudging, where Clubcard customers receive access to a discounted price on a large range of items. 6 Clubcard prices are displayed distinctly on shelves beside the regular prices in order to stand out. This encourages consumers to sign up with the Clubcard, believing that they are receiving a better deal while Tesco builds loyalty and an increasing number of returning customers. This nudge may improve consumer surplus if the discounts result in price saving. However, it can lead to increased impulsive spending based on perceived savings, potentially reducing allocative efficiency. Ultimately, nudges do not affect consumers’ freedom of choice, but their usage raises ethical concerns about firms exploiting cognitive biases to increase revenue. Pricing strategies and behavioural nudges both aim to influence consumer behaviour, but they achieve this through methods that have rather different microeconomic impacts. Regarding price strategies, both loss- leader pricing and penetration pricing operate by reducing prices which can lead to noticeable increases in demand and consumer surplus in the short term. However, if brand loyalty is not developed, these strategies often fail to make long-term shifts in consumer behaviour once prices return to normal. Behavioural nudges, on the other hand, operate discreetly by taking advantage of cognitive biases rather than actual price. For example, Tesco’s Clubcard does not always provide discounts. However, it frames the savings that do occur as exclusive and rewarding, particularly through extra ‘benefits’ found in the mobile app, which builds brand loyalty. 7 On a microeconomic scale, nudges can boost revenue for firms without changing the costs or product quality. However, if purchases are solely driven by discounts rather than the value of goods, consumer surplus can be undermined, and these ‘savings’ can encourage problematic consumer behaviour where purchases not meet their needs or preferences. Both approaches can improve consumer welfare, but nudges rely on subconscious manipulation and may therefore raise ethical questions. Ultimately, pricing strategies tend to influence consumer behaviour through logical motivations in the short term, while behavioural nudges lead to psychologically based consequences in the long term.

Both pricing strategies and behavioural nudges may benefit customers in the short term, but they can also be said to exploit unconscious psychological tendencies. Consumers may be more likely to purchase

3 Thaler & Sustein 2008. 4 Tversky & Kahneman 1981: 454. 5 Johnson & Goldstein 2003. 6 ‘Benefits of Clubcard.’ Tesco. Accessed August 31 st 2025. https://secure.tesco.com/clubcard/about. 7 Ibid.

Pricing strategies, behavioural nudges

products due to the belief that they are receiving a deal rather than out of preference or need for the good which develops unhealthy consumer behaviour, leading to the overconsumption of goods with low utility. Over time, this will cause allocative efficiency to fall as more resources are allocated towards these products in production, with the effect of reducing societal welfare. Additionally, default bias and framing are also techniques that manipulate consumer decisions. Customers are free not use Tesco’s Clubcard, but the substantial difference between Clubcard and non-Clubcard prices is an incentive to acquire one. 8 This concept is known as ‘choice illusion’. Thaler and Sunstein defended nudging under the principle of ‘libertarian paternalism’, referring to gently influencing choices without eliminating freedom. However, critics argue that this blurs the line between influence and exploitation. 9 Exclusive discount prices and default biases reduce the freedom of choice for consumers. These methods reveal the exploitative nature of companies using the cognitive biases of their customers to boost sales. Additionally, this may raise ethical concerns surrounding how much business should be allowed to exploit customers’ cognitive tendencies to increase revenue. Pricing strategies such as loss-leader pricing or artificially inflated ‘original prices’ prior to a discount can deceive consumers about a product's actual value. 10 This can go on to reduce the overall benefit of a product for consumers and consequently, the market may also become biased toward goods that do not represent real demand. These strategies are undeniably effective at influencing demand, but their usage must be considered alongside consumer welfare and autonomy, as well as market efficiency. In conclusion, pricing strategies and behavioural nudges both shape consumer behaviour in significant ways and are vital tactics employed by firms to influence market outcomes in the UK retail sector. Loss- leader and penetration pricing function by altering the cost of goods, often causing a clear short-term increase in demand and consumer surplus. However, if brand loyalty is not established, the results are temporary. In contrast, behavioural nudges operate by subtly exploiting cognitive biases with techniques like framing and default bias which increase revenue in the long-term without altering the product. However, these methods raise ethical problems surrounding consumers’ autonomy as they often limit consumer choice as well as encourage impulsive spending. This lowers consumer welfare and directs resources of producers towards low-utility goods, meaning allocative efficiency is lowered. Both methods can greatly impact consumer behaviour. However, their long-term impact is determined by whether they are used to enhance consumer welfare in the long run or to manipulate behaviour and damage market efficiency.

8 ‘Benefits of Clubcard.’ Tesco. Accessed August 31 st 2025. https://secure.tesco.com/clubcard/about 9 Thaler & Sustein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness (2008) 10 ‘Big UK retailers accused of ’dubious discounts’ on loyalty card offers’ https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/22/big-uk-retailers-accused-of-dubious-discounts-on- loyalty-card-offers-boots-superdrug-tesco-which

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