Will declining populations be the greatest issue economies face in the 21 st century?
Billy S
In past years geographers, scientists and economists worried about the exponential growth in population due to the industrial revolution, concerned that basic needs would be challenged because of the sheer number of people. As we now know, modern advancements in technology and agriculture ensured that we never experienced these dystopian visions from the 19 th and 20 th century of an overpopulated world. However, many intellectuals in the developed world say the opposite problem of declining birth rates has arisen, causing economic and social turmoil. Although it is widely agreed now this is a problem for the developed world, many have different views on how it should be dealt with and the extent to which it could harm our society, especially when considering it together with other existential threats emerging this century, such as climate change and global conflict. Earlier generations were not wrong to worry about the earth becoming too crowded: the human population had exponentially grown since the start of the industrial revolution. However, due to increased education and advancements in healthcare and technology, in more developed countries, people started having fewer children and birth rates dropped below the replacement rate of 2 births per woman. In the UK for example, births per woman peaked in 1963 with 2.93 births per woman 1 and has since been on a steady decline ever since, dropping below the replacement rate in the early 1970s and hitting a new low of 1.41 births per woman in 2024. 2 This trend is not unique to the UK, with many countries in the developed world having much lower birth rates, especially in east Asia, where Japan and South Korea, for instance, have birth rates of 1.20 and 0.75 respectively. What drives the extreme decline in birth rates are the less favourable economic conditions for couples wanting to have children and fewer people wanting to start a family in the first place. The cost of having children has increased dramatically in relation to wages since the mid-20 th century, with the cost of raising a child from birth to 18 being roughly £260,000. 3 That is 7 times the annual median wage in the UK of £37,430, 4 making it unaffordable for most people to have more than two children – the number that would meet the replacement rate. Furthermore, birth control through either abortion or contraception has made it easier for women not to have a child if they might struggle financially. In fact, in 2024, according to BPAS data, 57% of all abortions in the United Kingdom were driven by the cost-of-living crisis; 5 women feared they would not have enough money to support a child. The data shows this is a real issue and also one that, if current trends continue, will worsen over the course of the 21 st century. 1 SKY NEWS - https://news.sky.com/story/fertility-rates-continue-to-fall-but-number-of-births-rise-13419236 . 2 Ibid. 3 CPAG at https://cpag.org.uk/news/cost-child-2024 . 4 ONS at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/an nualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2024#:~:text=Median%20gross%20annual%20earnings%20for,%2C%20an%2 0increase%20of%206.9%25. 5 THE GUARDIAN at https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/24/number-abortions-england- wales-record-levels .
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