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SAF is key to reaching 2050 Net Zero targets
The 2050 outlook for aviation
SAF could contribute around 65% of the reduction in emissions needed by aviation to reach net-zero in 2050, says IATA. This will require a massive increase in production to meet demand. The largest acceleration is expected in the 2030s as policy support becomes global, SAF becomes competitive with fossil kerosene and credible offsets become scarcer. Achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 will require a combination of maximum elimination of emissions at the source, offsetting and carbon capture technologies. SAF aside, 19% of emissions reductions will come from offsets and carbon capture; 13% from new technology, electric and hydrogen; and 3% from infrastructure and operational efficiencies.
AIRLINES In aviation, scaling sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) remains one of the sector’s biggest challenges. High production costs and infrastructure investment continue to limit supply. This year, the European Union will phase out free emissions permits, requiring airlines to purchase allowances for all CO 2 output — increasing financial pressure to accelerate decarbonisation. IATA’s CO 2 Connect calculator now includes more than 100 participating airlines, with LOT Polish Airlines the first to integrate SAF emissions reductions into reported data. Rolls- Royce is leading a two-year SAF project with British Airways (BA), Imperial College London and Heathrow to reduce contrail emissions, while BA has also launched an investment fund with Breakthrough Energy Ventures to address supply constraints. Aircraft innovation is progressing in parallel. ZeroAvia is developing a hydrogen-electric variant of Airlander 10 with Hybrid Air Vehicles, targeting zero-emission in-flight operations.
In the US, Heart Aerospace’s ES-30 hybrid-electric aircraft will extend its range by more than 100 nautical miles using battery packs currently under development, with ambitions for hybrid- electric widebody aircraft by 2045. On the ground, Emirates Flight Catering has scaled up waste management with a custom-built biodigester, potentially avoiding more than 2,000 tonnes of CO 2 e annually. The Dubai-based carrier is also ramping up its vegan dishes on board, with new concepts to be launched next year (2027). Dishes incorporate fresh produce from Bustanica, the world’s largest hydroponic vertical farm – a joint venture with Emirates Flight Catering that delivers pesticide and chemical-free leafy greens like lettuce, arugula, and spinach, directly to Emirates’ catering facilities. DESTINATIONS For destinations, decarbonisation requires long-term planning and data-driven management. The Travel Foundation’s Envisioning Tourism
in 2030 and Beyond suggests that in a decarbonising world, growth will come from different travel patterns. EarthCheck Research Institute’s latest paper, Tourism and the Road to Net Zero: Why Destinations Must Act Now, offers practical guidance for implementation. The Maldives’ Vision 2040 strategy includes reforms to the Special Economic Zones Act, introducing Sustainable Townships aimed at economic diversification, social development and environmental sustainability. Singapore’s Tourism 2040 Vision, unveiled in 2025, aims to grow tourism receipts to between S$47 billion and S$50 billion by focusing on higher- value, more sustainable growth. To support this shift, the Singapore Tourism Board and Infocomm Media Development Authority provide structured industry backing through the Hotel Rejuvenation Fund, which co-funds major refurbishment and sustainability upgrades; a CTO-as- a-Service platform offering digital health checks and access to market- ready technology solutions; and a
Above: Europe’s GreenKayak initiative offers free kayak trips in exchange for litter collection on city waterways
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