The future of travel
Morocco is a ‘momentum market’
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Growth continues, but at a steadier pace Global travel is set to continue expanding over the coming decades. According to Tourism Economics’ latest Global Travel Service outlook, international trips are expected to exceed 2 billion per year by 2030, and to surpass 3 billion by 2045, roughly double today’s levels. This marks a moderation in the pace of growth compared with historic trends. Whereas global travel volumes previously doubled roughly every 15 years, the next doubling is expected to occur over a 20-year period. This slowdown is largely inevitable as the industry matures and growth increasingly depends on bringing new travellers into the market at scale. Even so, this implies an average increase of around 75 million international arrivals per year. Growth prospects remain strong when viewed against demographic trends. During the 15 years to 2019 – when travel volumes last doubled – the global population increased by around 20%. Over the next 20 years, population growth is expected to be less than 15%, meaning future travel growth will continue to outpace population expansion. Rising incomes will remain a central driver. While global GDP growth is expected to slow to below 2.5% per annum over the next two decades (from around 3% previously), slower population growth means GDP per capita will remain broadly stable. Building on the affordability gains of the past three decades, the number of households able to afford regular international travel will continue to
THE LONG VIEW ON GROWTH Travel demand to outpace population growth 2bn+ trips per year by 2030
most. Destinations that invest in connectivity, capacity and culturally relevant products will be best positioned to capture this demand. China is expected not only to become the world’s largest source market, but also to rise sharply as a destination. Tourism Economics expects China to become the third-largest global destination by 2035, overtaking the United States by 2030. France and Spain are forecast to retain the top two positions. Thailand is also set to rise in the rankings, becoming the eighth-largest destination, +75m arrivals per year on average 50% of the global population able to afford regular international travel by 2045
3bn+ arrivals by 2045
Source: Tourism Economics
rise. This share has increased from under 20% in 1995 to more than 35% in 2025 and is projected to exceed 50% by 2045, meaning half of the world’s population could afford regular international travel within 20 years. Destinations best placed for new demand As more emerging-market households join the global travel class, patterns will continue to evolve. Growth in outbound travel from Asia Pacific, particularly China and India, will increasingly determine which destinations benefit
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